Trump is the nominee

[Jac3510]

Something I posted on my FB feed:

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Warning: LONG POST -- looking at specific numbers for the Republican race. Bottom line: Trump will be the nominee. This is pretty much a mathematical certainty. . . .

Anyway, most of you probably know that I don't do much politics on Facebook. With that said, I want to talk to my friends supporting Ted Cruz.

I think, at this point, you are now making a mistake. I know you don't like Trump (neither do I). But if you are supporting him, I take it that you don't want Hillary Clinton in the White House. And this is the important thing: THE LONGER YOU ATTACK TRUMP, THE HARDER IT WILL BE FOR HIM TO UNITE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY AND BEAT CLINTON.
Let me be as clear as I can: Cruz cannot win the nomination. It is mathematically impossible. (I'll demonstrate below.) So my question is only this: would you rather have Clinton or Trump? If you would rather have Trump, then get behind him now so that Clinton doesn't win. If you honestly think that Clinton would be less dangerous to vote, then withhold your vote in the general election (because Trump will be the nominee) and allow her to take the White House. And if so, I won't fuss at you about that. I withheld my vote because I thought Romney and McCain were both more dangerous than Obama. I know a lot of you disagree with me on that assessment, and that's okay with me. I'm talking about now, today. Your question is this:

Would you rather have Clinton or Trump?

I know FB posts are supposed to be short, so feel free to stop reading. Below is a lengthy cut/paste of the delegate math I did for the rest of the year. If you like such things, feel free to read and comment:

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Look at the seven primaries happening in April:
Wisconsin (42, WTA, Open)
New York (95, Proportional, Closed)
Connecticut (28, Proportional, Closed)
Delaware (16, WTA, Closed)
Maryland (38, WTA, Closed)
Pennsylvania (71, Proportional/WTA, Closed)
Rhode Island (19, Proportional, Mixed)

So that's a total of 309 delegates up for grabs. Of those, a whopping 248 (that's basically 80%) are in closed primaries, which, the argument goes, is supposed to be good for Cruz. And yet, at the same time, EVERY ONE Of those closed primaries is in New England. Trump will win EVERY New England state, closed or not. Moreover, of the New England states, 54 delegates off the top are WTA. Trump is probably going to get 70-80% of the NY vote. He'll get say, 60% of the PN votes. Give him half of all the rest. That means Trump ends April with an added 191 delegates by my math, and that's assuming he loses Wisconsin. Let's assume he wins Arizona's 58 WTA and half of Utah's 40. That's an additional 78. Let's add 191 and the 78 to his current 678, and you get him to 947, which is 76% of what he needs for the nomination.

Let's go further. From May on, there is a total of 505 delegates remaining. To get to 1237, Trump would need 290, which is a huge 57% of the remaining delegates. But maybe here's the more important number. By May, Cruz will look to have accumulated 561 delegates. Just look at 947 compared to 561. But what's more important is that, by that point, it will be mathematically impossible for Cruz to win the nomination. From May on, he will need to capture 133% of the remaining delegates!!!

So I say AGAIN -- it is IMPOSSIBLE for anyone except Trump to be the nominee.

But just for fun, how much of that 57% can Trump expect to get? LIKELY ALL OF IT. He will get all 57 of Indiana's WTA delegates. Let's give him half of Nebraska and WV's combined 73. He'll dominate Oregon--give him 75% of their 28, and the same 75% of Washington's 44. Give him a mere half of California's 172 (I expect he'll do much better), none of Montana's 27 WTA, all of NJ's 51 WTA, half of NM's 24, and none of SD's 29 WTA. That means he'll have picked up in May and June an additional 296, WHICH WOULD BE ABOUT 60% of the remaining vote. He'll enter the convention with these numbers at around 1243 votes, MORE than then 1237 necessary to win. Against that, Cruz would have AT BEST (even if we gave him 100% of the remaining delegates in May and June, with NONE to Kasich) a mere 769 delegates, only 62% of the necessary votes.

Trump has this thing in the bag. The question at this point is whether or not we are willing to swallow hard and get behind him. I know you don't want to. I don't want to either. I don't like Trump. But he's less dangerous to me than Clinton.

Just food for thought. God bless you all!

[RickD]

But what if Trump doesn't get to the magic number 1237. Then conceivably, from what I understand, the choice of the nominee goes to the convention. At that point,( somebody correct me if I'm wrong) the powers to be in Republican Party can choose a nominee.

So basically, if I understand correctly, If Trump doesn't get 1237 before the convention, the Republican Party can choose whoever they want.

If that's the case, Even though Trump would be the overwhelming choice of republican voters, the choice for nominee would be taken completely out of the voters hands, and given to those in power in the Republican Party.

Which in my guess, would split the Republican voters. And would all but guarantee that the democrat nominee would be president.

[Jac3510]

Yes and no. In theory, the powers that be could give it to anyone they want, but that would require some rule changes. And besides, if Trump doesn't get to 1237, he's going to get very, very, very close--say 1200. Don't you think he'll be able to get 37 of the thousand or so to vote for him? It's not just that the party gets to decide. It's that the delegates get to decide. And they know that if they all get together and give it to someone who came in a very, very distant second or third or didn't run it at all then there is NO WAY that person will win in November against Clinton. Trump himself will either run third party or simply walk out with his delegates, and all the Trump supporters will (rightly) stay home in November.

The party isn't stupid. They're a lot of things, but not stupid. So none of that is going to happen. As I said, Trump is the nominee, and all this is why I'm encouraging Cruz supporters to go ahead and get behind him now if they don't want Clinton in the White House.

[edwardmurphy]

Personally, as an independent who hates the whole BS, lesser-of-two-evils system I'm kind of hoping that the Republican Party fractures into the Angry Conservative Party and the Best Classiest Number One Populist Party, Clinton gets indicted, and an independent candidate like Santa Roy Clark wins.

[RickD]

Santa Roy Clark has really let himself go since his days with ZZ Top.

[RickD]

Yes and no. In theory, the powers that be could give it to anyone they want, but that would require some rule changes. And besides, if Trump doesn't get to 1237, he's going to get very, very, very close--say 1200. Don't you think he'll be able to get 37 of the thousand or so to vote for him? It's not just that the party gets to decide. It's that the delegates get to decide. And they know that if they all get together and give it to someone who came in a very, very distant second or third or didn't run it at all then there is NO WAY that person will win in November against Clinton. Trump himself will either run third party or simply walk out with his delegates, and all the Trump supporters will (rightly) stay home in November.

The party isn't stupid. They're a lot of things, but not stupid. So none of that is going to happen. As I said, Trump is the nominee, and all this is why I'm encouraging Cruz supporters to go ahead and get behind him now if they don't want Clinton in the White House.

I'm not convinced that the Republican Party wouldn't rather have Hillary than Trump. If Trump is promising to shake up the Republican Establishment by cleaning house, maybe they'd rather deal with 4-8 years of Hillary or Bernie, if it means they stay in their cushy, high paying positions.

Besides, does the party that gave us Mitt Romney, really make you think they have our best interests at heart?

[Hortator]

Besides, does the party that gave us Mitt Romney, really make you think they have our best interests at heart?

Once you have access to the U.S. Treasury, it changes you as a person. I don't think either established party has us in mind. Themselves yes, their friends most likely, but how alike are we from the establishment in Washington? Very little.

It's alllll about the donor money from this corp. or that corp.

[abelcainsbrother]

Yes and no. In theory, the powers that be could give it to anyone they want, but that would require some rule changes. And besides, if Trump doesn't get to 1237, he's going to get very, very, very close--say 1200. Don't you think he'll be able to get 37 of the thousand or so to vote for him? It's not just that the party gets to decide. It's that the delegates get to decide. And they know that if they all get together and give it to someone who came in a very, very distant second or third or didn't run it at all then there is NO WAY that person will win in November against Clinton. Trump himself will either run third party or simply walk out with his delegates, and all the Trump supporters will (rightly) stay home in November.

The party isn't stupid. They're a lot of things, but not stupid. So none of that is going to happen. As I said, Trump is the nominee, and all this is why I'm encouraging Cruz supporters to go ahead and get behind him now if they don't want Clinton in the White House.

I'm not convinced that the Republican Party wouldn't rather have Hillary than Trump. If Trump is promising to shake up the Republican Establishment by cleaning house, maybe they'd rather deal with 4-8 years of Hillary or Bernie, if it means they stay in their cushy, high paying positions.

Besides, does the party that gave us Mitt Romney, really make you think they have our best interests at heart?

The dirty little secret is Hillary Clinton is going to be indicted by the FBI. the media is covering it up and not reporting on it but the FBI is breathing down her neck and even if the DOJ gets in the FBI's way? The FBI is going to leak info about their investigation and it will doom Hillary politically. And actually leaks are already starting to come out now if you know where to look.

Here is some new information I've learned about their investigation. According to witnesses this whole thing started over a Blackberry. Hillary wanted a secure Blackberry like Obama the President has but they told her no they are expensive to make and only the President gets one,you can use your secured computer in your SKIT(a SKIT is a room set up for the SOS) but Hillary fussed about wanting a Blackberry like the President has,but they kept telling her no,several people were kindof put off little about her fussing about it after they had already told her no,but she decided to use her own Blackberry that was not secure and it is against the law.It was an inconvenience for her to use the secure computer in her SKIT. I mean think about how people are so linked to their smart phone and Hillary was too.

If she is indicted she will have to step down and the Democrats will put up somebody else like Joe Biden,etc. They are not convinced Bernie as old as he is could beat Trump.There is just as much vote corruption on the Democrat side too which is why Bernie can win and yet the delegates still go to Hillary and alot of Democrats are seeing it too. It is not just the Republican party telling the voters we get to choose for you,they just are wanting to do it after all of the votes are in while the Democrat party is bold enough to do it right out in the open and Hillary brag about how it is set up that way for her to win. The media is only focusing on the Republican party with their bias but it is on the Democrat side too.But Hillary is going to be indicted and it changes things.

[edwardmurphy]

I'm not convinced that the Republican Party wouldn't rather have Hillary than Trump. If Trump is promising to shake up the Republican Establishment by cleaning house, maybe they'd rather deal with 4-8 years of Hillary or Bernie, if it means they stay in their cushy, high paying positions.

Nobody wants to give up power. The money is irrelevant. If they lose their positions with the RNC they'll just go into consulting, lobbying, punditry, running PACs, or some other cushy, high-paying position on the periphery of the government.

[Nicki]

Please explain a bit more to a foreigner - who are these delegates? I read something which said the purpose of the primaries was to choose delegates, but from what I saw on CNN the delegates seemed to be voting for the presidential candidates. Do they delegates each have one candidate they're standing for and everyone's voting between them?

[DBowling]

Please explain a bit more to a foreigner - who are these delegates? I read something which said the purpose of the primaries was to choose delegates, but from what I saw on CNN the delegates seemed to be voting for the presidential candidates. Do they delegates each have one candidate they're standing for and everyone's voting between them?

I don't think most Americans (including myself) really understand how delegates really work either... its complicated.

The short version is that the Presidential candidates are officially chosen at the Political Party Conventions by a vote of the delegates.
Based on the primaries and caucuses, individual states choose the delegates that will represent their state at the Party convention and who those delegates are "pledged" to vote for.
At the Party conventions the delegates chosen by the states elect the Presidential candidate for that Political Party. In order to become the Presidential candidate a person must receive a majority of the votes from the delegates attending the Party convention.

During the first round of voting at the convention the delegates are "pledged" to vote for particular candidates based on the state primaries and caucuses. Most of the time a candidate will have a majority of 'pledged' delegates going into the convention so the candidate for the party will be elected by the delegates during the first round of voting.

If a single candidate does not receive a majority of the delegate votes during the first round of voting, then the process of lobbying and arm twisting delegates begins, and voting continues until a single person receives votes from a majority of the delegates at the convention.

I think that's how it works...

[edwardmurphy]

Here's a start. It doesn't include an explanation of what will happen at a convention, but as far as I know DBowling covered that pretty well.

https://www.gop.com/the-official-guide- ... g-process/

[RickD]

Edward,

Thanks for the link.

You don't happen to have a link that shows how the process works if a candidate doesn't get 1237 delegates?

I'd like to see how the convention process works in that regard.

[edwardmurphy]

Here's a start.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention

However, the plot thickens with Rule 40, aka the "Ron Paul Rule." Basically it says two things:

1) Candidates can't participate in the convention unless they win a majority of delegates in 8 states.
2) Votes for candidates who fail to meet the aforementioned conditions will not even be counted.

So according to Rule 40, Trump and Cruz are the only two people on the planet that can be considered for the GOP nomination.

However, the plot thickens even more, since the Rules Committee can just change Rule 40, or anything else, really, to open the door for anyone they want. So advantage Establishment.

However, if The Establishment takes that route and pushes Trump out the door that just might destroy the party.

So who knows...

[edwardmurphy]

Y'know, upon reflection I think the Republican Party is going to split. We've got two likely scenarios -

1) Trump hits 1,237 and a bunch of appalled conservatives walk away.

2) Trump falls 2-3% short, there's a brokered convention, the Rules Committee changes Rule 40 to open the door for someone they find palatable, and Trump takes his supporters and walks away.

No matter what happens something like 40% of the party is going to be outraged. I'm not sure how that can be resolved.