Political Predictions 2016

[Silvertusk]

Britain will leave the EU allowing Boris Johnson to become prime minister. Trump will become president. Two oafs on both side of the Atlantic - world war 3 ensues - Armageddon and then the second coming......in that order.

[abelcainsbrother]

Land of Confusion?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHmH1xQ2Pf4

[Jac3510]

Hillary is nominee, probably picks Sherrod Brown, maybe Juan Castro as VP (she'd love Warren, I think, but I don't think Warren would do it). Trump wins. I don't know who his pick will be other than to say it will certainly be someone who is a seasoned politician (and a seasoned Republican). He wants this person to act as his go-between between himself and Capitol Hill. It won't be Christie. It won't be Rubio or Cotton or any other such brand-spankin' new Republican, much less a neo-con (I don't see how Trump picks a neo-con). Sessions would be a fine, if uninspiring pick. And that's the last thing I'm expecting in a Trump pick. Yes, he wants to govern, but he also wants to win. So he's going to pick someone who is interesting. He'll reveal this person as part of his convention. So don't expect a "conventional" pick--read, no hispanic, no woman (e.g., no Haley, no Martinez).

To the election -- I think Hillary does NOT get indicted, but I think someone close to her does. (Alternatively, she gets indicted on severely reduced charges that Clinton is able to brush aside.) Trump will, of course, play that up as part of his "Crooked Hillary" mantra. She'll continue to attack him on being dangerous on foreign policy, and he'll tie her to Bush's foreign policy in the process (e.g., her vote for Iraq war and generally interventionalist approach). That will resonate strongly enough with independents and Sanders supporters that it will either prevent them from voting for Clinton or else it will actually bring them to vote for him (especially when trade is considered). Trump will put the rust belt in play in a way it has never been. He will lose in California and New York, but not by as much as expected. He'll actually force Clinton play defense there and so she won't be able to make a play for, say, Georgia. Bottom line is that Trump will win the general election by taking states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and maybe even New Jersey. The question for Republicans going forward four or eight years from now is if the Trump-coalition can be persuaded to continue to vote Republican or are they really just that attracted by Trump's personality (in a way, then, Republicans will have a Trump problem the way that Democrats have an Obama problem).

Still playing out, only it looks like Brown needs to be replaced with Kaine (the other two names are still correct). And then . . .

On other fronts, Britain will leave the EU. This will be interpreted as a major boost for Trump, and there will be a general wave of nationalism and nativism begin to sweep across Europe more generally.

Check.

There will be no significant changes with ISIS--they'll continue to lose ground generally as we continue to take out top leaders. But they won't be going away--it will become clear that the idea of them becoming a caliphate is not only a dead idea but one that they know is a dead idea, but they will shift their focus to more traditional terrorism (which in some ways will make it harder to fight them--this, again, will be a boon to Trump).

Looks like this is checking out, too . . .

Maybe my predictions were to vague/general.

[Mallz]

What are your predictions of Turkey?

[Jac3510]

To the election -- I think Hillary does NOT get indicted

Check.

Far from being over, this is going to play into to "Crooked Hillary"/"System-is-rigged" mantra. Watch for leaks from the intelligence community over this. This is going to infuriate people as they come to see this as yet another way how Clinton is above the rules.

[RickD]

I predict Britain will vote to exit the European Union.

You heard it here first.

[RickD]

To the election -- I think Hillary does NOT get indicted

Check.

Far from being over, this is going to play into to "Crooked Hillary"/"System-is-rigged" mantra. Watch for leaks from the intelligence community over this. This is going to infuriate people as they come to see this as yet another way how Clinton is above the rules.

I also have a bad feeling that she's going to get away with this.

In the words of sir Charles, "It's turrible."

[abelcainsbrother]

We will have to wait and see if I was right in saying Jeff Sessions will be Trump's VP. Right now people are talking about Chris Christie or Newt Gingrich, but I still think in the end it will be Sessions.I think it would be dangerous for Trump if he picked anybody else because Jeff Sessions is strong when it comes to fixing illegal immigration.

[edwardmurphy]

Far from being over, this is going to play into to "Crooked Hillary"/"System-is-rigged" mantra. Watch for leaks from the intelligence community over this. This is going to infuriate people as they come to see this as yet another way how Clinton is above the rules.

I'm seeing yet another Republican witch hunt come up witchless, just like in the endless Vince Foster and Benghazi investigations. The Clintons are no more or less crooked than anyone in Washington, but they're a good deal more prominent than most. That's all this was.

[Jac3510]

Of course you do, because you are a leftist. You're no more interested in the truth than far right conservatives who were just looking for any possible excuse to attack her. But the truth is far more in the middle, and even more important than that is the perspective people will have on the truth. Whether you want to admit it or not, the vast majority of Americans view Clinton as untrustworthy. This feeds into that narrative. I'm talking political reality. You can talk about conspiracies and witch hunts. Trump can talk about rigged systems. The sad political reality for you is that you lose that debate with everyone who isn't a lefist.

[Jac3510]

.

[Jac3510]

So some more predictions -- some low hanging fruit, I think. Theresa May will be the next PM of England, which is ironically good for Brexit folk. She campaigned for stay, but she's also committed to executing the vote to leave. She'll be perceived as having a good, steady hand in all of this, and it will assuage some of the fears in the financial world. The result will be a much more stable Brexit than its critics predicted, and while this goes well beyond 2016, it will actually fuel the leave campaigns in other countries, most notably France. So watch for stories to pop up now and again about a Frexit. Merkel will focus on biding her time and not doing anything dramatic to try to temper those ideas and preserve the EU, with the problem being an increasing focus on a Germany-lead EU. All of Europe will be somewhat skittish about that, and the French won't be particularly fond of that idea anyway.

Back stateside, the fallout of Hillary's non-indictment will be pretty big. Calls for releases of FBI evidence, accusations of political favors, and leaks (oh, look for the leaks) will be ongoing. Also expect a shift somewhat to a discussion about Hillary's recklessness ("carelessness" to use the FBI's word) and the almost certainty that national secrets were exposed to other countries by it. In other words, Hillary put the nation at risk by not caring about the rules.

VP predictions haven't changed much--Still looking at Castro and Warren primarily from the Dem side. Both are very problematic, as is the third possibility, Kaine. I'm thinking Castro, because his big flaw is that he's so new and inexperienced on a national level, but the expectation, I bet, is that Clinton's long resume makes up for that. So do we have the makings of a Palin style gaffe if so? Warren is an obvious choice, but two women on the ticket might strike even Hillary as a bit on the nose (although possibly necessary to get Sanders supporters? All about how they do the math.). And given Kaine's own scandles, seems too dangerous to pick him. Reinforces the wrong ideas. Trump's possibilities are still too broad, though the top three seem to be Gingrich (yuck), Pence, and Corker. The third makes the most sense on paper, but Trump is so much about his own personal instincts, I bet he'll pick the person he just feels best about (just like he picked Lewandowski). Christie is, of course, always a consideration, but I don't think it's him. Here, I'll say I'm leaning Pence in terms of a bet.

Still think that Trump ultimately wins. When he is formally nominated, the remaining parts of the Dump Trump movement will fall away and he'll get a boost from the drive in his own base. That'll basically tie him with Clinton. She'll get the boost at her own convention, of course, and will reclaim the lead, but I don't see her ever really getting and holding north of 50%. Trump's message will slowly eat away at her over the course of the summer and fall. Further, she, like Trump, doesn't handle losing well, and so she'll get more aggressive as he closes in and takes the lead, and that desparation will just not play well. Add to that what I expect to be a significantly better than expected performace against white males with what may well be the largest male turnout in election history, and I think Trump outperforms his polls regardless, both today and on election day.

I suppose that's enough Nostradomusing for now . . .

[abelcainsbrother]

I agree there will be leaks from the FBI that will continue to haunt Hillary as we go forward. I must say though that this has been known for along time that even if she is not indicted the leaks from the FBI will doom her politically.

I predict that Hillary will be seen as winning but once we get to the debates this is where Trump will really do harm to her politically,she is being protected by the media for now,but in the debates Trump will doom her. I would not be surprised to see victims of Bill Clinton becoming apart of Trump's campaign also and these women telling what Bill did and what Hillary did to keep them quite for politics sake. Athough the media overlooks Hillary's many scandals Trump will continue to bring them up and will expose more things at the right time. He is sitting on so much info but will reveal it at the right time. The media will set Trump up just like with Megyn Kelly but it will not hurt Trump enough and he will prevail winner. The only way Trump won't beat Hillary and become President is if he is assassinated,and he should be smart and vigilant when it comes to the threat because there is a lot of money involved and everywhere there is money when it comes to government it has corruption tied to it. They don't like to be exposed and don't want change.

This is one reason why Trump needs to be smart when it comes to who he picks for VP. It would be best to pick somebody he knows that agrees with him on his most important issues. Yet he has said he wants a political person that knows how Congress works and this is why I think it will be Jeff Sessions. Trump does not need a candidate that appeals to a particular sect like in most elections,which is probably how Hillary is thinking. Trump does not have to worry about that in this election and he does things his way.

Something that we need to consider is the RNC trying to cut a deal with Trump and tries to force him to accept their pick for VP like with Reagan,they made a deal and forced Reagan to take Bush,then there was an assassination attempt on Reagan while in office. But I think Trump has a big enough lead that he will get to pick his VP choice,but it is something that could effect things.

[Jac3510]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/ ... sness.html

[Hortator]

The reasoning was pretty funny, and basically came down to this: "Oh, you clearly did something wrong. But, you didn't have bad thoughts while doing it, so we're going to leave you alone."

I wonder what happened during those FBI meetings that took place over the holiday weekend when everyone was busy?

The Hil: "Okay, who in this room wants to keep their job when I become president? Raise your hand."

"That's what I thought."