Political Predictions 2016

[RickD]

Jac wrote:

If, though, he DOES do well with the black vote, then he'll DEFINITELY win places like Michigan and even put some New England states like NJ into play. In that case, you're looking at 350, which would, in Trump's parlace, be yuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge. I don't see THAT, but it's out there.

Jac, when did New Jersey become part of New England?

[Philip]

Jac, when did New Jersey become part of New England?

Maybe he got confused because it has "New" in the name? Don't forget New Mexico! Or, New England SW.

[Jac3510]

To go from 1% to around 20% in a couple of weeks, that's pretty astounding. I expect that will increase, as those who switch you'd consider to be more passionate and vocal to their friends and the like. Trump I'm sure will continue reaching out to them.

Of course, could always be wrong regarding landslide win, but I'm not even factoring in the upcoming Wikileaks' leak. It could be, the Democrats need to replace Hillary come October. They could have possibly won with anyone else, but they installed Hillary. Trump right now just has to beat a dead horse.

I've not read he's at 20+%. I know a year ago he was getting around that (and I think the poll being cited by Political Insider and Breitbart is actually a year old and they missed the date on that), but I think today his numbers are less than 5%. Around 2%, if 538 is to be believed.

But regardless, that sort of highlights Clinton's problems. If that's right and Trump is doing even WORSE among blacks than Romney or McCain did and he still is where he is in the polls (with the trajectory he has), she's as good as toast.

Jac wrote:

If, though, he DOES do well with the black vote, then he'll DEFINITELY win places like Michigan and even put some New England states like NJ into play. In that case, you're looking at 350, which would, in Trump's parlace, be yuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge. I don't see THAT, but it's out there.

Jac, when did New Jersey become part of New England?

BAHA. Good catch.

[RickD]

I think the key to trump's winning, is him winning a southeastern state, such as Alaska.

[Kurieuo]

To go from 1% to around 20% in a couple of weeks, that's pretty astounding. I expect that will increase, as those who switch you'd consider to be more passionate and vocal to their friends and the like. Trump I'm sure will continue reaching out to them.

Of course, could always be wrong regarding landslide win, but I'm not even factoring in the upcoming Wikileaks' leak. It could be, the Democrats need to replace Hillary come October. They could have possibly won with anyone else, but they installed Hillary. Trump right now just has to beat a dead horse.

I've not read he's at 20+%. I know a year ago he was getting around that (and I think the poll being cited by Political Insider and Breitbart is actually a year old and they missed the date on that), but I think today his numbers are less than 5%. Around 2%, if 538 is to be believed.

I believe it might have been a state level poll, now I've gone looking for it...

But according to a recent Trafalgar Group poll, which is considered average reliability, Black ethnicity are at 25%+. I'm sure as new polls come out, they'll show a growing trend rather than diminishing. Let's wait and see.

[John]

Anyone that votes for a man that chooses the name of a Trickster dose not get my Vote. God did not make him take that Name he did it on his own accord
.
You can not support the fossil fuel industries and be against Wall Street it is an oxymoron.

Rev 13.

I am what I am by the Grace of God.
My Name Wythe Mean Up-Right, so is the Word of God Rev. 19

The Wythe follow the Course.
( _{If you might be Black pay very close attention, its your history too.})
{13 year it took from the singing to the first President.}

[Kurieuo]

To go from 1% to around 20% in a couple of weeks, that's pretty astounding. I expect that will increase, as those who switch you'd consider to be more passionate and vocal to their friends and the like. Trump I'm sure will continue reaching out to them.

Of course, could always be wrong regarding landslide win, but I'm not even factoring in the upcoming Wikileaks' leak. It could be, the Democrats need to replace Hillary come October. They could have possibly won with anyone else, but they installed Hillary. Trump right now just has to beat a dead horse.

I've not read he's at 20+%. I know a year ago he was getting around that (and I think the poll being cited by Political Insider and Breitbart is actually a year old and they missed the date on that), but I think today his numbers are less than 5%. Around 2%, if 538 is to be believed.

I believe it might have been a state level poll, now I've gone looking for it...

But according to a recent Trafalgar Group poll, which is considered average reliability, Black ethnicity are at 25%+. I'm sure as new polls come out, they'll show a growing trend rather than diminishing. Let's wait and see.

Found that poll! Seems I was ahead of the mainstream news by 3 or so days:

Trump saw a 16.5 percentage-point increase in backing from African-American voters in a Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California tracking poll, up from 3.1 percent on Sept. 10 to 19.6 percent through Friday.
(http://nypost.com/2016/09/18/black-vote ... -new-poll/)

I'll admit, sometimes I get mixed up with my premonitions and what is present day.

[Jac3510]

yeah just saw that story at RCP. if that's right this he will win bigger than I ever thought. just wow. wow.

[John]

yeah just saw that story at RCP. if that's right this he will win bigger than I ever thought. just wow. wow.

For Those who Love the Lawless One. and hope he wins.
The one that change his God given name to a name of a Trickster, Who come in showing all types of power with big fancy airplane and a mouth of curse words, thinking he cares about you.
http://dontstopbelievingingod.blogspot.com
Repent.
The Lord Love You.
The Lord Come with forgiveness in his heart

[RickD]

yeah just saw that story at RCP. if that's right this he will win bigger than I ever thought. just wow. wow.

For Those who Love the Lawless One. and hope he wins.
The one that change his God given name to a name of a Trickster, Who come in showing all types of power with big fancy airplane and a mouth of curse words, thinking he cares about you.
http://dontstopbelievingingod.blogspot.com
Repent.
The Lord Love You.
The Lord Come with forgiveness in his heart

What are you talking about? Are you insinuating that Donald Trump changed his name?
http://www.snopes.com/donald-drumpf/

[Jac3510]

Update:

Changing my prediction on the election's outcome. I think Clinton will win. The tapes with the rude language was something of a non-entity, only the kind of thing that people who already don't like Trump would get riled up about. Now stories of women coming out and saying he actually touched them inappropriately, that crosses the line Trump implicitly recognized in his "only words" rebuttal at the second debate. Now he pretty much is Bill Clinton, and that let's Hillary Clinton off the hook (rhetorically speaking) in the framing on sexual assault. When it was just crude talk, Trump was a normal guy. Sorry that women and liberals don't like it, but enough men talk that way that it just didn't matter. But most men do not just walk up and start touching/kissing women because they can. That's Bill Clinton territory.

It doesn't matter if the stories are true. Worse for Trump, we just got through the Bill Cosby saga. There it was the same. It didn't matter if the stories were true. The fact that multiple women made the accusation was enough. I think Trump is done. I can't see how he defends himself from this. He can't attack the accusers. He doesn't have time to exonerate himself in court. He can't even attack the media (his best play otherwise) because he's the one who said "it was only words."

It doesn't matter that Clinton's actual record is more dangerous. It doesn't matter that Wikileaks shows sever corruption even worse than imagined before. SCOTUS arguments don't matter. In terms of what does matter, Trump just lost independents.

I have long said that this election was and always would be a referendum on Trump, not Clinton. There was only ONE question that needed to be answered: Can I imagine Trump as President? For a very long time, the answer to that was yes. People hated Clinton and were looking for an excuse to see Trump as presidential. Liberals don't count. They're going to vote for Clinton anyway (just like the Trump base didn't count because they were going to vote for him anyway). I'm talking about that large middle ground of people who don't like Clinton, but didn't like Trump and were looking for an excuse to vote for him and justify their opposition to Clinton. They've largely had that. But with Trump now being pictured as actually sexually assaulting someone, it's over. That is in line enough with the general narrative that it has an air of believability, and people just can't justify voting for someone who assaults women. It just won't happen. The only way this changes is for something drastic to happen to Clinton. It would have to be HUGE, something health related again, perhaps. But on the whole? Trump is done. He's going to lose and lose badly.

[PaulSacramento]

I think that Jac may be right.
Emotional responses always trump intellectual ones.
We see that all the time here as well.
The latest from WikiLeaks should have been the final nail in CLintion's coffin ( for anyone that was actually research who to vote for) but I don't think it will be enough.

I do feel sorry (not really) for those women if the allegations are false because Trump's vengeance will be something.

[B. W.]

Update:

Changing my prediction on the election's outcome. I think Clinton will win. The tapes with the rude language was something of a non-entity, only the kind of thing that people who already don't like Trump would get riled up about. Now stories of women coming out and saying he actually touched them inappropriately, that crosses the line Trump implicitly recognized in his "only words" rebuttal at the second debate. Now he pretty much is Bill Clinton, and that let's Hillary Clinton off the hook (rhetorically speaking) in the framing on sexual assault. When it was just crude talk, Trump was a normal guy. Sorry that women and liberals don't like it, but enough men talk that way that it just didn't matter. But most men do not just walk up and start touching/kissing women because they can. That's Bill Clinton territory.

It doesn't matter if the stories are true. Worse for Trump, we just got through the Bill Cosby saga. There it was the same. It didn't matter if the stories were true. The fact that multiple women made the accusation was enough. I think Trump is done. I can't see how he defends himself from this. He can't attack the accusers. He doesn't have time to exonerate himself in court. He can't even attack the media (his best play otherwise) because he's the one who said "it was only words."

It doesn't matter that Clinton's actual record is more dangerous. It doesn't matter that Wikileaks shows sever corruption even worse than imagined before. SCOTUS arguments don't matter. In terms of what does matter, Trump just lost independents.

I have long said that this election was and always would be a referendum on Trump, not Clinton. There was only ONE question that needed to be answered: Can I imagine Trump as President? For a very long time, the answer to that was yes. People hated Clinton and were looking for an excuse to see Trump as presidential. Liberals don't count. They're going to vote for Clinton anyway (just like the Trump base didn't count because they were going to vote for him anyway). I'm talking about that large middle ground of people who don't like Clinton, but didn't like Trump and were looking for an excuse to vote for him and justify their opposition to Clinton. They've largely had that. But with Trump now being pictured as actually sexually assaulting someone, it's over. That is in line enough with the general narrative that it has an air of believability, and people just can't justify voting for someone who assaults women. It just won't happen. The only way this changes is for something drastic to happen to Clinton. It would have to be HUGE, something health related again, perhaps. But on the whole? Trump is done. He's going to lose and lose badly.

Get ready Jac, America will never be the same, Comrade!

Just think her well known disdain for Christianity will break forth into full swing...

The left did the same to Clarence Thomas...

Into a few years of her reign - the gospel will be first hindered, soon afterward outlawed as hate speech...

Just a matter of time

Better to Vote for a Pagan Cyrus rather than Jezebel
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[RickD]

Jac,

You can't change your prediction. You were so sure that Trump would win.

Pick a prediction, and live with the consequences.

[Philip]

Rick: Jac,

You can't change your prediction. You were so sure that Trump would win.

Pick a prediction, and live with the consequences.

Well, he also asserted Trump was brilliantly playing the press, the left. Not so much. He was merely tapping into legitimate anger. But his mouth has TRUMPED his chances. He' not very smart at realizing perceptions, right or wrong, have huge impact. All along I thought he has sketchy morals. And while he's still not in the league of the Clintons or Bill's zipper problem, women's perceptions (rightly or wrongly) may well sink his ship. Soon we shall see!

But for all of those who react as if Hil gets in, that the sky will fall - well, WHO exactly is still on His throne? Is our well-being totally up to some politicians???!!! Just think of the corrupt political and militaristic players in New Testament days! What will happen, with those foaming at the mouth in the streets, is the far right will battle the radical left. Mere anger will begin to turn to hate. But would you rather be in Europe? I wouldn't! Where? Point is, faith is an assurance that God will not be surprised, that He loves us, although we should expect persecution.