Political Predictions 2016

[Kurieuo]

Of course we can expect that when Hillary's media reports stuff, it's not always going to have much backing:
BREAKING: @NYTimes Trump Accuser #JessicaLeeds CONFIRMED Liar Through CNN Airplane Details

If too many become too easily squashed, then it could backfire. Also, perhaps Trump's lawsuit might succeed.

[edwardmurphy]

This might push things back towards Trump, you think?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tOOc-toJkdE

I watched the clip - it's in this article should you wish to see it.

It's going to play well with the diehard fanatics that will overlook or rationalize literally anything Trump says while desperately searching for Clinton comments to deliberately misinterpret and blow out of proportion, but those guys didn't really need convincing. It's going to fall flat everywhere else, because comparing Trump bragging about committing sexual assault with impunity to Clinton joking about a musician's pants splitting is ridiculous to the point of being offensive.

K, you're spamming garbage and nonsense.

[Kurieuo]

It means nothing to me really.

Trump is chauvinistic, end of story. In highschool girls would grab arses. guys would grab girls back in highschool, and then some. Flirting often carried over to physical advances. That's going back some time, but by today's, I know such is quite tame.

Doesn't make it right, but if the lefts like CNN and NYT and yourself would desire everyone strictly adhere to Judeo-Christian values, then lets bring them on. I'd be all for it.

Now, one, two cases, were going clearly beyond personal boundaries. One, on the aeroplane has holes in it. The other, taking a woman to a room and advancing on her with a kiss, well, guys do that. And, that could be deemed sexual harassment if undesired, but what on earth was going on? Was there flirting in the lead up to it, and she just didn't expect the move which Trump pulled off awfully. I had a girl unexpected shove her tongue down my throat, it was a little gross at the time... but hey, that's people. Guys can mistakenly misread cues too, especially if they think themselves all that.

So I'm not your typical stick up the bum Christian either, that's going to be at all startled and freak out over this or that sin. I and am well aware of the social scene even going back to my time 20 years back. Heck, it's almost normal for married couples to have affairs. As deplorable as that is.

Sexual advances are one thing, sexual harassment another, and then rape takes thing to a whole new level, not to mention the pedo flights Clinton frequently went on over Sex Island or whatever it is. Oh, there is another video in the pipeline, and if true, it'll likely lead to Bill's arrest. But, what on Earth is Hillary remaining married to the guy for? There have been cases settled and the like, she is well aware of such. Attacking his victims. It's as low as low can be, especially all the while touting being a defender of women.

And no, that's no joke, not nonsense.

[Philip]

Ed, what is disturbing is that you appear to frame this election as a choice between a corrupt Republican and a Democrat that's not so bad. You have to know of the raging corruption and terrible history of the Washington HillBillies! And in its zeal to elect Hillary and hate Trump, the press is willing to overlook just about everything negative about the Clintons. Now, I can see that people hate a lot of stuff about Trump - and so do I. But to so easily gloss over what the Clintons' history is, just to defeat Trump - that's pretty scary. And when we think of the huge money fueling these media 24/7 spin machines, well, one can easily see why the mainstream media is untrustworthy. And mostly, mainstream media is just conveniently editing out what doesn't match its spin and are all regurgitating the same non-critical stuff. To basically crucify the crudeness of Trump around women while giving Bill Horndog and his enabler a free pass on a legendary stream of people they've hurt - well, how hypocritical and phony! That doesn't make Trump's sins any better, but it shows that the media isn't consistent or balanced. And that's just the sexual stuff. Look at the history of Hillary as Sec. of State and the Clintons foundation and money ties - legendary corruption and bad decisions. And so I see these continuous one-sided sarcastic comments about conservatives, but then you gloss over the left, repeatedly.

[abelcainsbrother]

Liberalism is a mental disorder where everybody is supposed to be perfect except for them and their lies and slander trumps truth.As Wikileaks confirmed Hillary and the liberals want a dumbed down society because it is easier to fool the people. Ed does not mind that Hillary wants him dumbed down so that she can get her way politically.He ignores it because he believes the liberal conspiracy theory that Russia hacked into our system and Trump is a Russian agent so we can ignore the leaks.No! He dislikes Trump so much when he has never seen what a non-politician can do as President that he is so angry at Russia he wants to elect Hillary who restarted the cold war and admitted in the last debate she wants nuclear war with Russia.

[abelcainsbrother]

You wonder why I do not believe these Trump sex assault lies? Remember just recently Ed was accusing Trump of starting the Obama is a Muslim slander,the birther issue? Well it was Hillary in 2008 campaigning against Obama who started it.Just like I said then. Now how many lies about Trump by the liberal media do I have to overlook to now trust them about Trump?
http://therightscoop.com/wikileaks-emai ... narrative/

[DBowling]

You wonder why I do not believe these Trump sex assault lies? Remember just recently Ed was accusing Trump of starting the Obama is a Muslim slander,the birther issue? Well it was Hillary in 2008 campaigning against Obama who started it.Just like I said then. Now how many lies about Trump by the liberal media do I have to overlook to now trust them about Trump?

This is a prime example of why I don't believe anything that comes out of the Trump campaign.

I can't believe that Trump still continues to perpetuate the lie that Clinton started the birther issue. He even repeated that lie... yet again... in the last debate.

There is nothing in Assange's dump of emails to indicate that Clinton started the lie that Obama wasn't born in the US.

That is a flat out lie by Trump and his campaign that is really absurd to perpetuate.

Again the easy way to prove me wrong is to produce any quote (even from the Putin/Assange hacks) where Clinton states that Obama wasn't born in the US.

[Philip]

All of these late revelations about Trump - really, whose votes are those going to CHANGE - that is, people that have watched the Clintons for a long time - or at least are well informed about them - they will likely look at these allegations - true or not - and realize, compared to Bubba, Trump's are the actions of a complete sexual wannabe/amateur. As Bill's many tawdry cheap thrills and despicable, predatory actions make Trump look like a high school kid caught with a hickie. So, if it comes to those actually voting, what demographic of voter will this truly change? Because if one truly despises the disrespect of women, they gotta despise Bubba's legendary horndog activities more, if not just as much. I think what it might most change is many women sitting on the fence, previously prepared to hold their nose and vote for Trump, but that now may not even vote at all. So, in the swing states, will this really change things? The other issue is, how close are the polls to reflecting reality? Remember in 2012, ones like Gallup were miserably wrong. With so much on the line, the polls so close, it doesn't surprise me that last-minute revelations are being put forth. But where were these people months ago?

[Kurieuo]

As quickly as the come against Trump, they go. Though it really doesn't matter since the media controls matters.

Summer Zervos discredited:
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtNj1RxhRu0
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOfa_K1GWIk

Jessica Leeds further discredited:
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5jWjhO_9cY

[Jac3510]

Update 2:

Revisiting my previous update, I concluded with:

The only way this changes is for something drastic to happen to Clinton. It would have to be HUGE, something health related again, perhaps. But on the whole? Trump is done. He's going to lose and lose badly.

It's hard not to see how Clinton's case being reopened isn't a HUGE thing. Yes, Trump is now actually understood to be a sexual predator. And that beats pretty much anything. Anything legal. The only hope Trump has is for Clinton to be understood to be a criminal. To be under federal indictment (or under the very real threat of indictment) is worse, persuasion wise. It will have two effects. It will blunt the effect of the anger of women coming out to vote against Trump because that would mean they would have to vote for a felon. Some will do so, but a lot won't. And it will encourage those who are angry at the system and wanting to vote against it an excuse to vote for Trump even though he has been accused of sexual misconduct.

Odds are split for me right now, 50/50. I'm not updating to say Trump WILL win, but now to say that I definitely no longer believe that Clinton absolutely will win. I have a very, very light nod towards a Trump victory, such that I wouldn't be surprised if he won at all, but nor would I be surprised at a Clinton victory at this point.

With that said, if Trump successfully prosecutes this case and if Clinton mishandles this as bad as she mishandled it previously, then the next ten four days will be terrible for her. Right now the tracking polls have it as a tie. If Trump is back up near five by election day and if the national polls are within a point in either direction, then November 8 is going to go heavily Trump, likely enough to overcome Clinton's strong showing in the early voting. If this blows over and Clinton maintains her national lead and keeps the tracking polls even, then she still wins without too much difficulty. She won't get a blowout by any stretch of the imagination. So at this point, the election is Clinton's to lose, depending on how she responds to the FBI revelations and what happens with that over the next few days.

[RickD]

Jac,

Make up your mind. You're flip flopping more than Mitt Romney!

Pick a prediction, and own it!

[Jac3510]

On a serious note, I do hope you can see the theory I'm working with and have been from day one. I don't care if the prediction is consistent. I care if the method of making it is. If the facts change, that has to effect the expected outcome. It's not like an endorsement.

If you want a prediction that isn't based on data, that's just an actual prediction, then I'll go back to my original and say "Trump," not because I think he'll actually win but because that is what I originally said. The data doesn't support that, but his chances are A LOT better than they were twenty-four hours ago. The October surprise has clearly gone his way. Enough to with him the Oval Office? I don't know. Not enough data. But enough to absolutely put him back in the running? Yes, big time. Easily so.

[RickD]

On a serious note, I do hope you can see the theory I'm working with and have been from day one. I don't care if the prediction is consistent. I care if the method of making it is. If the facts change, that has to effect the expected outcome. It's not like an endorsement.

If you want a prediction that isn't based on data, that's just an actual prediction, then I'll go back to my original and say "Trump," not because I think he'll actually win but because that is what I originally said. The data doesn't support that, but his chances are A LOT better than they were twenty-four hours ago. The October surprise has clearly gone his way. Enough to with him the Oval Office? I don't know. Not enough data. But enough to absolutely put him back in the running? Yes, big time. Easily so.

Then Trump it is. How can you be considered as having the gift of prophecy, if you don't stick to your original prediction?

Trump will win. I'm confident in your prophetic ability.

[abelcainsbrother]

I've brought up Roger Stone throughout this election because he has been the most accurate about what is gonna happen,somehow he seems to know based on his connections. But he said last week that next week Hillary will be out of this race and so now I'm wondering if this thing with the FBI reopening the email investigation has something to do with it. It still seems hard to believe she will be out of this election,perhaps wikileaks is gonna release her deleted e-mails,if this is not it.

[Philip]

Clinton's huge problem, per the new FBI letter, is that she can't resolve it before the election, and it just builds her corrupt image many are just beginning to realize the magnatude of. And, depending upon how the FBI plays this, in the days to come, it could get even worse for the Arkansas HillBillies! If Trump wins, I predict major riots.