Jac3510 wrote:I want to be careful to preface all this by saying that the only impressions I have gotten are those given from popular media, so I could easily have this entire scenario wrong. But, with that said, I have a question:
Would it not be beneficial to Lebanon, and by extension to the entire region, for Israel to disarm Hezbollah? The current governement there, from what I understand, isn't able to do that without starting a sectarian war, but if Israel does it, then that problem is resolved. The elected gov't can then go in with its army and establish order.
However, two things seem to me to be necessary to go with that. First, it is going to unfortunately require some heavy fighting. That will necessarily result in heavy destruction and loss of life. I would not place that blame on Israel, though, for two reasons. Number one, Hezbollah started the entire problem, and number two, if they would respect the elected gov't, none of this would be a problem anyway. So, ultimately, the blame for civilian casualities lies with them. The second necessity, and this may be actually be harder to sell, would be a comprehensive, international rebuilding plan. If Israel herself, along with the international community, once Hezhollah is disarmed, helped the Lebanese gov't to rebuild and re-establish order, then those who benefit the most directly - the Lebanese people - will see that it is not they who were under attack, but those who were effectively holding them hostage. The support, both financial and manual, would be a strong token of good favor in the international community at large.
The result, it would seem, then, would be a more Western-friendly Lebanon, and those who would react harshly against that would be the very ones that had been disposed of. Is this not all precedented by WWII and our treatment of Germany?
So, just my thoughts . . . how does that play out?
And you and your family are certainly in my prayers, Byblos.
God bless
Thanks Jac, I appreciate that.
As for the scenario you describe, if it were that easy, believe me many of the Lebanese would welcome it (destruction and all). But the problem is much deeper and reality much too complicated.
Just a few issues to consider:
You're right in so much as the Lebanese government (by using the army) is incapable of raining in Hezbollah for two reasons. One, it lacks the money, equipment and training. Two, most low level soldiers are Shiites and therefore sympathetic to Hezbollah. Utilising the army will fail miserably and, like you said, will likely plunge the country into another civil war.
Hezbollah has been operating in Southern Lebanon since the early 80s. In fact current Hezbollah officials claim the party was born out of necessity to fight the Israeli occupiers (Israel occupied southern Lebanon from 1983 to 2000). When Israel pulled back in 2000, they effectively left Hezbollah in charge and made them heroes in the eyes of the Arabs as the sole
resistance group to force Israel to release occupied land.
Along with Syria (the sole occupying force after Israel pulled out) and some very corrupt politicians (both Christian and Moslem) Hezbollah became the dominant force while Syria and its henchmen stole the country blind (to the tune of $40 Billion).
Hezbollah became a state within a state. It controlled every aspect of South Lebanon, built schools and factories, provided social security and helped the poor. So now it is not only viewed as a heroic resistance movement but also a vital social organization. All the while its military wing grew stronger and stronger having the Syrian moral and geographic support, as well as the Iranian financial and logistical backing.
After Syria pulled out in 2005, Hezbollah had no choice but to enter the government and become a full fledged political party as well. This was in an effort to deny the majority the vote to disarm it (at least peacefully) and at the same time keep its arms despite the majority opinion against it.
All of this lengthy preamble is to say that in order for Israel to effectively wipe out Hezbollah, 1) they would have to commit a considerable number of ground troops. I'm not sure Israel is ready to sacrifice hundreds, possibly thousands of soldiers to accomplish that nor do we or the world expect it to do so. 2) Hezbollah is not a traditional army with known base locations and a defined presence. They operate underground and no one really knows where they are (or even who they are). By day they are factory workers, painters, plumbers; and by night they are black-clad fighters. For Israel this is the nightmare scenario. It will turn into their Vietnam.
There's no way to really 'wipe out' Hezbollah. The price is much too high. They need to be neutralized by taking away their ability to hit Israel (thereby taking away their claim that they are defending their nation). Then we can only hope that their disarmament will come through internal political solutions, having taken away the reasons for which they claim they need arms.
Finally, we do not deny Israel its God-given right to defend itself against aggression and terrorism. However, public opinion that's always been sympathetic to the Israeli plight is turning (whether or not they support Hezbollah) and that's due not only to the loss of innocent life (over 200 so far, the vast majority of whom are women and children) but also because of the shear wonton destruction of civilian infrastructure. It's not just airports, seaports, bridges, electric grids, and major highways. Those are understandable from a military strategy viewpoint. But grain silos? Tissue factories? Internal roads that lead to nowhere full of minibuses full of fleeing women and children? Pedestrian bridges full of pedestrians? Who are they punishing? Why are they not hitting the missile launchers in the south?
In any case, our only hope is that the job is finished and a peace-keeping force is sent into Southern Lebanon (the U.N. already has some military presence there under UNIFIL so it shouldn't be hard to expand it). Like I said, if this doesn't happen (the peace-keeping force), Hezbollah will be left stronger than ever, though slightly displaced. How long do you think it will take for the Iranians to send them missiles that can reach Tel Aviv from 20 miles north of the border? Then we're back to square one and the cycle of violence continues unabated. God help us all in that eventuality.
Eh, I guess you can tell I'm conflicted, right?. Please forgive the rantings.
God bless you all,
John.
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