Lebanese Christians protest Hezbollah

[Gman]

Byblos,

I thought you might like this article: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060925/ap_ ... christians

I kind of wonder though if this could spark a civil war over there.... What do you think?

[Canuckster1127]

Byblos,

I thought you might like this article: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060925/ap_ ... christians

I kind of wonder though if this could spark a civil war over there.... What do you think?

I'll be interested to know what Byblos thinks on this too.

Personally, I think it is a good sign. Militant Islam seems to thrive when the majority in a region is passive and allows them disproportionate power. The more Sunni's and Christians become active and directive in Lebanon's future, the more Hezbollah will be forced underground.

I suspect, right or wrong, this is part of Israel's motivation to treat Lebanon in a manner tying them to Hezbollah's actions and treating Lebanon as an ally rather than a passive host.

I know it's more complicated than that and further, civilians are suffering terribly. It may well be that there is a question of proportionate response. The insidiousness of terrorism is that is disassociates itself formally from the traditional state, and as such presents no formal target for retaliation. If states themselves do not work to regulate and suppress these groups, then it appears the strategy Israel and the US are taking, is to hold them responsible as active partners.

[Byblos]

Byblos,

I thought you might like this article: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060925/ap_ ... christians

I kind of wonder though if this could spark a civil war over there.... What do you think?

Anything's possible Gman, but I am very hopeful another civil war can be avoided. What you're seeing now is nothing more than saber rattling and position jockeying. Hezbollah knows full well that they painted themselves in a corner. Their claim of existence (to protect the country from the zionist enemy fell short of its promise since they couldn't stop an invasion from occurring. They're taking the next best thing by claiming victory for 'blocking' the invasion (never mind that a thousand innocent people died and the country's infrastructure is in ruins).

Given that they could not stop an invasion, and the fact that Hezbollah's promise to its countrymen was always that their weapons will never be directed inward, Hezbollah will have no choice but to give up their arms. The big question is how.

In Lebanon politics, there's NEVER, EVER, a winner and a loser. That's true in times of war as well times of peace. Politics by consensus, not majority. It's the only formula that will protect Lebanon's diversity and democracy. Hezbollh will not be disarmed by force, nor will they lay them down willingly; that would mean defeat. Given enough time, Hezbollah's weapons will simply disappear, never to be seen or used again. Every once in a while you will hear them threaten to use them but idle threats they will be. The Lebanese army, along with a strengthened UNIFIL, is in control of the South. Hezbollah no longer has a role to play in the South but they're trying ride the 'victory' wagon into a bigger role in Lebanon politics.

Of course, if external influences are exerted with enough force, Hezbollah is capable of reversing course and causing civil war. In that dreaded scenario, the war will no longer be contained locally.

Samir Geagea, by the way, (the man quoted in the article) is my former commander.

He was leader of the Lebanese Forces — the country's most powerful Christian militia during the Lebanese civil war. Israel backed the militia during that conflict and the Israeli invasion in 1982 to expel Palestinian guerrillas.

He is known as The Doctor. He had gone to medical school but an injury to his hand as well as the war prevented him from finishing, however.

God bless,

Byblos.

[Gman]

Glad you're not part of that mess anymore Byblos...