Richard Dawkins vs. George Gilder

faithinware · Post by **faithinware** » Tue Nov 21, 2006 4:49 pm

I purely think in this disussion chance is misunderstood. If you ever go to Vegas, and win big, let me know how you did it. I would like to repeat that process. I could be rich.

The chances of myself actually existing is 0. Chance describes something that may or may not happen in the future. It is not a description about the past.

Try figuring that one out.

sandy_mcd · Post by **sandy_mcd** » Tue Nov 21, 2006 5:15 pm

faithinware wrote:The chances of myself actually existing is 0. Chance describes something that may or may not happen in the future. It is not a description about the past.

I sincerely hope that reports of your recent demise are greatly exaggerated. Are you sure that your chance of existing isn't in fact 1?

faithinware · Post by **faithinware** » Tue Nov 21, 2006 5:29 pm

Actually the chance that I exist is 0. Because the fact that I exist has no bearing on chance whatsoever. Which concludes my point.

sandy_mcd · Post by **sandy_mcd** » Tue Nov 21, 2006 7:09 pm

faithinware wrote:Actually the chance that I exist is 0. Because the fact that I exist has no bearing on chance whatsoever. Which concludes my point.

You're going to have to explain that in detail because I sure don't understand. The probability of some event has a value between 0 (can't occur) and 1 (will occur). By the very fact of assigning a value (in this case 0), you are admitting that some event exists in probability space. [Otherwise you would have had to say that the probability is undefined.] [Note also that in the case of the chance being either 0 or 1 no uncertainty is involved, yet we still speak of a "probability".]
Your use of 0 reminds me of an old joke:

The dazzling coed sat perched on her stool, at the local hangout, as the young man sat beside her. Following the usual 'small talk', he made his move. "Tell me, would you sleep with a total stranger for a million dollars?"

"Well, yes, I guess I would." she replied.

"Would you sleep with me for ten dollars?" he went on.

"Ten Dollars??? What kind of girl do you think I am ?" she huffed.

"We've already established that." he shot back. "All we're doing now is haggling over the price."

faithinware · Post by **faithinware** » Wed Nov 22, 2006 5:49 pm

Sandy it is easy to explain. No probability is used, because it is not part of the equation. We talk of probabilities here, when no such talk should even be posited. There is no reason for it. The logic is faulty. How else do I need to explain it?

It is totally nonsensical. Any other question about probability?
Probability is used to predict things that will happen in the future, not the past. It is not possible to predict what will happen when it already has happened.

For instance, what is the probability that the deck of cards that you see is in the order that you see it? Use of probability in this instance is not reasonable.

sandy_mcd · Post by **sandy_mcd** » Wed Nov 22, 2006 8:30 pm

faithinware wrote:The chances of myself actually existing is 0. ... No probability is used, because it is not part of the equation.

1) Is a chance of 0 a valid value? Yes or no. [If you answer no, Google "outcome space" "impossible event" and read some of the hits.]
2) You assigned the chances of your existing a value of 0. What does this mean in light of your answer to 1?

faithinware wrote:For instance, what is the probability that the deck of cards that you see is in the order that you see it?

Depending on how you interpret the question (English is not particularly precise), the answer is either 1 or 1 in 52! (52 factorial) (for a deck of 52 different cards in random order).