'Law of averages' ...

[DannyM]

When I get home after dark I cannot see which key (out of two) is the one for my front door due to the lobby light being out of action for the last three/four months. Every time I feel for my lock and guess the key I ALWAYS get the wrong key - 100% of the time I get the wrong key. This must have happened between 40-50 times in the period in question. Where's the 'law of averages' here? Am I just unlucky, or is the 'law of averages' a load of old pony?

Yes I am constantly asking for the light to be fixed!

[zoegirl]

Suppose there is some unconscious bias in the choosing? (you choose the left side, right side on the key ring??)

All else being equal, it should simply be 50%....but can we completely exclude bias in the choosing...?

[cslewislover]

That's interesting. You must like the feel of the one key better. Does it have two larger protrusions? In any case, they do sell these small rubber things (no pun intended) that fit on the top of the key. If you put one on, you could feel the right key right away.

[DannyM]

Suppose there is some unconscious bias in the choosing? (you choose the left side, right side on the key ring??)

All else being equal, it should simply be 50%....but can we completely exclude bias in the choosing...?

Well I am a 'lefty'; not politically - lord No! I am left handed/footed, but even if I always go left what is to say that the wrong key must always fall to the left side of my key ring? If this is the case then surely we have even further evidence of the 'law' not coming in to play here?

[DannyM]

That's interesting. You must like the feel of the one key better. Does it have two larger protrusions? In any case, they do sell these small rubber things (no pun intended) that fit on the top of the key. If you put one on, you could feel the right key right away.

Well the keys are near identical, CS! Of course I could help myself here by adding a, erm, small rubber thing to the all important key, but this won't explain the bizarre results I'm getting when I have to choose in the dark. I'm miffed!

[zoegirl]

Suppose there is some unconscious bias in the choosing? (you choose the left side, right side on the key ring??)

All else being equal, it should simply be 50%....but can we completely exclude bias in the choosing...?

Well I am a 'lefty'; not politically - Lord No! I am left handed/footed, but even if I always go left what is to say that the wrong key must always fall to the left side of my key ring? If this is the case then surely we have even further evidence of the 'law' not coming in to play here?

But perhaps there is a "natural" or habitual way you hold the key ring?

[cslewislover]

That's interesting. You must like the feel of the one key better. Does it have two larger protrusions? In any case, they do sell these small rubber things (no pun intended) that fit on the top of the key. If you put one on, you could feel the right key right away.

Well the keys are near identical, CS! Of course I could help myself here by adding a, erm, small rubber thing to the all important key, but this won't explain the bizarre results I'm getting when I have to choose in the dark. I'm miffed!

Well I wouldn't know. It seems like it should be 50/50 to me, so all's I can think of is that you like the feel of one key better for some reason. Maybe the shape at the top of that one just lends itself to being chosen more readily.

[Furstentum Liechtenstein]

You pick the wrong key because you are a Right-wing Theist with Social Values, choosing a key with your left hand. Here is how you may solve your problem:

-Become an Agnostic Socialist Theist and choose the key with your right hand.
-Become an Atheistic Reactionary Agnostic and choose the key with your right hand while verifying with your left.
-Become a Postmodern Theistic Atheist with «Harley Davidson» tattooed onto your right arm.

I just love to help people.

FL

[DannyM]

You pick the wrong key because you are a Right-wing Theist with Social Values, choosing a key with your left hand. Here is how you may solve your problem:

-Become an Agnostic Socialist Theist and choose the key with your right hand.
-Become an Atheistic Reactionary Agnostic and choose the key with your right hand while verifying with your left.
-Become a Postmodern Theistic Atheist with «Harley Davidson» tattooed onto your right arm.

I just love to help people.

FL

You do make me laugh !

Loving your work!
-
-

[DannyM]

Suppose there is some unconscious bias in the choosing? (you choose the left side, right side on the key ring??)

All else being equal, it should simply be 50%....but can we completely exclude bias in the choosing...?

Well I am a 'lefty'; not politically - Lord No! I am left handed/footed, but even if I always go left what is to say that the wrong key must always fall to the left side of my key ring? If this is the case then surely we have even further evidence of the 'law' not coming in to play here?

But perhaps there is a "natural" or habitual way you hold the key ring?

Possibly, but why must the key always fall down with this natural or habitual way in which I hold the key ring? Surely any habits I have do nothing to influence the movements of the keys?

[DannyM]

That's interesting. You must like the feel of the one key better. Does it have two larger protrusions? In any case, they do sell these small rubber things (no pun intended) that fit on the top of the key. If you put one on, you could feel the right key right away.

Well the keys are near identical, CS! Of course I could help myself here by adding a, erm, small rubber thing to the all important key, but this won't explain the bizarre results I'm getting when I have to choose in the dark. I'm miffed!

Well I wouldn't know. It seems like it should be 50/50 to me, so all's I can think of is that you like the feel of one key better for some reason. Maybe the shape at the top of that one just lends itself to being chosen more readily.

Hmm, I see this as being very plausible... I believe in the 'law of averages', but am not so sure of the 50-50 rule; I should at least be at the 70-30 mark either way ...

[DannyM]

Danny boy's just looked at those 'online' and is the only person on here... I have a free reign? I feel like a kid in a sweet shop - what mischief can I cause ...

[zoegirl]

I;m on...

When I hold my key ring a certain way, the one key can be found on the one side...it simply has to do with the way I am holding the keys..

[jlay]

How can you choose the wrong key, when there are no absolutes?

[DannyM]

I;m on...

When I hold my key ring a certain way, the one key can be found on the one side...it simply has to do with the way I am holding the keys..

Phew, I felt alone there for a minute - was waiting for the bale of hay to run across the screen in the wind ...

But Zoe, can this really account for said key falling into my hand? I'll jump on board with you - I want a plausible explanation, but get this: I have two key rings; one big key ring with another key ring around it. On this other key ring there are 3 keys: two yale keys (i.e. the keys in question) and one chubb key which I never use ... Regardless of how I hold the key ring, how can this happen?