question about climate change and the Bible
-
- Acquainted Member
- Posts: 19
- Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:34 am
- Christian: Yes
- Sex: Male
- Creation Position: Undecided
Re: question about climate change and the Bible
Are we all done with talk of proxies and hockey sticks? Good.
The fact is the earth is warming now when all logic says that it should be cooling, and there is no natural explanation that climate sceptics can provide of what is driving the current warming trend. Sure the Milankovitch and solar cycles have been important in driving climate change in the recent and distant past, but there is no climate theory that explains the current and observed changes in climate that does not hinge on CO2 driving the temperature change.
The fact is the earth is warming now when all logic says that it should be cooling, and there is no natural explanation that climate sceptics can provide of what is driving the current warming trend. Sure the Milankovitch and solar cycles have been important in driving climate change in the recent and distant past, but there is no climate theory that explains the current and observed changes in climate that does not hinge on CO2 driving the temperature change.
-
- Ultimate Member
- Posts: 3301
- Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2009 6:31 am
- Christian: Yes
- Sex: Male
- Creation Position: Day-Age
- Location: A little corner of England
Re: question about climate change and the Bible
The fact is we are currently in the midst of a small cooling period amongst an overall warming period; this overall warming period being no higher than previous warming periods. Period!tidalforce wrote:Are we all done with talk of proxies and hockey sticks? Good.
The fact is the earth is warming now when all logic says that it should be cooling, and there is no natural explanation that climate sceptics can provide of what is driving the current warming trend. Sure the Milankovitch and solar cycles have been important in driving climate change in the recent and distant past, but there is no climate theory that explains the current and observed changes in climate that does not hinge on CO2 driving the temperature change.
Also, CO2 lags temperature. not the reverse. Your comment there is just plain WRONG.
Oh, and your choice of phrase is a complete Red Herring..."Climate sceptics..."? How can I deny the climate?
Think again.
credo ut intelligam
dei gratia
dei gratia
-
- Acquainted Member
- Posts: 19
- Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:34 am
- Christian: Yes
- Sex: Male
- Creation Position: Undecided
Re: question about climate change and the Bible
We were in the midst of a cooling trend (as shown by various proxies) from the mediaeval warm period and earlier. The overall climate has, as far as proxies can be relied upon, been steady to dropping for the past 400 years or so. The jury is out on whether the current warming is of a greater, lesser or equal magnitude to the MWP (let's say, for argument's sake, that the MWP was warmer than it is now) but, and here's the crucial bit, no known natural causes or cycles can be implicated in the current warming trend.DannyM wrote:The fact is we are currently in the midst of a small cooling period amongst an overall warming period; this overall warming period being no higher than previous warming periods. Period!tidalforce wrote:Are we all done with talk of proxies and hockey sticks? Good.
The fact is the earth is warming now when all logic says that it should be cooling, and there is no natural explanation that climate sceptics can provide of what is driving the current warming trend. Sure the Milankovitch and solar cycles have been important in driving climate change in the recent and distant past, but there is no climate theory that explains the current and observed changes in climate that does not hinge on CO2 driving the temperature change.
Also, CO2 lags temperature. not the reverse. Your comment there is just plain WRONG.
Your statement on CO2 lag would be more accurate if you had worded it "ice-core proxies show that, in previous glacial termination events (on a ~100,000 year cycle) temperature rises preceded CO2 rises". This is distinct from the separate observation (observed via direct measurements, not proxies) that global temperatures and CO2 concentrations are, right now, rising together.
-
- Ultimate Member
- Posts: 3301
- Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2009 6:31 am
- Christian: Yes
- Sex: Male
- Creation Position: Day-Age
- Location: A little corner of England
Re: question about climate change and the Bible
Okay, so we're not too far apart here. I would only add that as far as I can see the jury is most certainly in on the MWP being (around 0.5-1.0C) warmer than the CWP. You are right to correct me about my wording with regards C02 lagging temperatures; it is generally accepted that CO2 is lagging temperature in Antarctic graphs. But the reality is that these graphs are still widely used as an argument for the AGW hypothesis. You need to show temperature does lag C02 if there is going to be any chance of you having a case. And by how long does this occur?tidalforce wrote:We were in the midst of a cooling trend (as shown by various proxies) from the mediaeval warm period and earlier. The overall climate has, as far as proxies can be relied upon, been steady to dropping for the past 400 years or so. The jury is out on whether the current warming is of a greater, lesser or equal magnitude to the MWP (let's say, for argument's sake, that the MWP was warmer than it is now) but, and here's the crucial bit, no known natural causes or cycles can be implicated in the current warming trend.
Your statement on CO2 lag would be more accurate if you had worded it "ice-core proxies show that, in previous glacial termination events (on a ~100,000 year cycle) temperature rises preceded CO2 rises". This is distinct from the separate observation (observed via direct measurements, not proxies) that global temperatures and CO2 concentrations are, right now, rising together.
credo ut intelligam
dei gratia
dei gratia
-
- Ultimate Member
- Posts: 3301
- Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2009 6:31 am
- Christian: Yes
- Sex: Male
- Creation Position: Day-Age
- Location: A little corner of England
Re: question about climate change and the Bible
Here's another Red Herring. Can you explain to me how this "crucial" piece of information helps your case?tidalforce wrote:The jury is out on whether the current warming is of a greater, lesser or equal magnitude to the MWP (let's say, for argument's sake, that the MWP was warmer than it is now) but, and here's the crucial bit, [i]no known natural causes or cycles can be implicated in the current warming trend[/i].
credo ut intelligam
dei gratia
dei gratia
-
- Acquainted Member
- Posts: 19
- Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:34 am
- Christian: Yes
- Sex: Male
- Creation Position: Undecided
Re: question about climate change and the Bible
Because we know that CO2 et al are greenhouse gases, and we know that both greenhouse gas concentrations and global average temperatures have increased over the past century or so.DannyM wrote:Here's another Red Herring. Can you explain to me how this "crucial" piece of information helps your case?tidalforce wrote:The jury is out on whether the current warming is of a greater, lesser or equal magnitude to the MWP (let's say, for argument's sake, that the MWP was warmer than it is now) but, and here's the crucial bit, ]no known natural causes or cycles can be implicated in the current warming trend.
It's all well-and-good pointing out, for example, past eras where CO2 has not been the initiating factor in warming events, but that says nothing about the current situation.
-
- Ultimate Member
- Posts: 3301
- Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2009 6:31 am
- Christian: Yes
- Sex: Male
- Creation Position: Day-Age
- Location: A little corner of England
Re: question about climate change and the Bible
Again, this is a non-answer. We know that CO2 is a minor greenhouse gas. The above statement is just an acknowledgement of two facts. Actually, I can argue that we have been in a warming period for over a thousand years. You are giving yourself a starting point of 100 years ago. Why is that? I can give a starting point of pre-MWP and factor in the LIA as a cooling period amongst an overall warming period. Which of course would put today's warming in complete perspective. But, of course, you start at 100 years ago and give yourself a 'case.' But only by bypassing the rest of history. It would be clever if it were not so transparent.tidalforce wrote: Because we know that CO2 et al are greenhouse gases, and we know that both greenhouse gas concentrations and global average temperatures have increased over the past century or so.
You're wrong. Past trends can help us keep trends like the CWP in perspective. The idea of placing CO2 in a central role for driving temperatures because “we cannot explain the big changes in temperature with anything other than CO2″ is just bogus. It is a false argument. It's not even a process of elimination. It's a monumental assumption based on...well...no prior evidence.tidalforce wrote:It's all well-and-good pointing out, for example, past eras where CO2 has not been the initiating factor in warming events, but that says nothing about the current situation.
credo ut intelligam
dei gratia
dei gratia
-
- Acquainted Member
- Posts: 19
- Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:34 am
- Christian: Yes
- Sex: Male
- Creation Position: Undecided
Re: question about climate change and the Bible
I completely understand your point about where to start plotting trends from; there are any number of periods you can select over the past millions of years that will either result in the appearance of the 21st century being in the midst of an overall warming or cooling trend. I chose ~100 years as that is how far back instrumented CO2 and temperature records go, so sorry if it made it look like I was trying to dismiss the rest of history out of hand.DannyM wrote:Again, this is a non-answer. We know that CO2 is a minor greenhouse gas. The above statement is just an acknowledgement of two facts. Actually, I can argue that we have been in a warming period for over a thousand years. You are giving yourself a starting point of 100 years ago. Why is that? I can give a starting point of pre-MWP and factor in the LIA as a cooling period amongst an overall warming period. Which of course would put today's warming in complete perspective. But, of course, you start at 100 years ago and give yourself a 'case.' But only by bypassing the rest of history. It would be clever if it were not so transparent.tidalforce wrote: Because we know that CO2 et al are greenhouse gases, and we know that both greenhouse gas concentrations and global average temperatures have increased over the past century or so.
I don't see it as a monumental assumption. To put it as simply as possible - the warming measured over the last century or so would not have happened absent some forcing:DannyM wrote:The idea of placing CO2 in a central role for driving temperatures because “we cannot explain the big changes in temperature with anything other than CO2″ is just bogus. It is a false argument. It's not even a process of elimination. It's a monumental assumption based on...well...no prior evidence.
- There is no reason to think that increased CO2 concentrations will not lead to temperature changes of some magnitude - and instruments shows that CO2 concentrations are rising
- The CO2 rise may be mainly anthropogenic
- The CO2 rise may be mainly natural
- If not attributable to CO2 then the warming must be attributable to some other cause
- That other cause may be solar/orbital cycles
- Out-gassing of greenhouse gases other than CO2
- Some other known cause
- An as-yet-unknown cause
- A combination of some or all of the above
-
- Ultimate Member
- Posts: 3301
- Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2009 6:31 am
- Christian: Yes
- Sex: Male
- Creation Position: Day-Age
- Location: A little corner of England
Re: question about climate change and the Bible
I accept that was not your motive. But I seriously believe it is the motive of others.tidalforce wrote:I completely understand your point about where to start plotting trends from; there are any number of periods you can select over the past millions of years that will either result in the appearance of the 21st century being in the midst of an overall warming or cooling trend. I chose ~100 years as that is how far back instrumented CO2 and temperature records go, so sorry if it made it look like I was trying to dismiss the rest of history out of hand.
Absolutely agreed.tidalforce wrote:I don't see it as a monumental assumption. To put it as simply as possible - the warming measured over the last century or so would not have happened absent some forcing:Would it be a fair of me to say that we both agree with the statement that any global temperature changes must be attributable to some cause, though our views differ on what the likely cause of recent warming is?
- There is no reason to think that increased CO2 concentrations will not lead to temperature changes of some magnitude - and instruments shows that CO2 concentrations are rising
- The CO2 rise may be mainly anthropogenic
- The CO2 rise may be mainly natural
- If not attributable to CO2 then the warming must be attributable to some other cause
- That other cause may be solar/orbital cycles
- Out-gassing of greenhouse gases other than CO2
- Some other known cause
- An as-yet-unknown cause
- A combination of some or all of the above
credo ut intelligam
dei gratia
dei gratia
-
- Ultimate Member
- Posts: 3301
- Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2009 6:31 am
- Christian: Yes
- Sex: Male
- Creation Position: Day-Age
- Location: A little corner of England
Re: question about climate change and the Bible
tidalforce,
You wrote:
"1.There is no reason to think that increased CO2 concentrations will not lead to temperature changes of some magnitude - and instruments shows that CO2 concentrations are rising
a.The CO2 rise may be mainly anthropogenic
b.The CO2 rise may be mainly natural"
This is the only part of your last post that I would contend with. I think there is every reason to think that CO2 emissions will not lead to temperature rises of any magnitude. Abundant evidence of CO2 lagging temperatures, and not driving temperatures, would be reason enough. Wouldn't it?
You wrote:
"1.There is no reason to think that increased CO2 concentrations will not lead to temperature changes of some magnitude - and instruments shows that CO2 concentrations are rising
a.The CO2 rise may be mainly anthropogenic
b.The CO2 rise may be mainly natural"
This is the only part of your last post that I would contend with. I think there is every reason to think that CO2 emissions will not lead to temperature rises of any magnitude. Abundant evidence of CO2 lagging temperatures, and not driving temperatures, would be reason enough. Wouldn't it?
credo ut intelligam
dei gratia
dei gratia
- jlay
- Ultimate Member
- Posts: 3613
- Joined: Fri Feb 13, 2009 2:47 pm
- Christian: Yes
- Sex: Male
- Creation Position: Young-Earth Creationist
Re: question about climate change and the Bible
We also need to make clear that CO2 is not a polutant. It is a natural part of our atmosphere.We know that CO2 is a minor greenhouse gas.
Great lenghts have already been taken to reduce the release of CO2 and actual harmful gasses into the atmosphere by man. Very expensive methods have been implemented in a number of areas including automotive emissions, and coal fired plants. Both to reduce CO2, SO2 and NOx emisions. In fact just in my area in the Tennessee Valley, billions have been spent on scrubbers for coal fired plants. Ultra Low sulfur diesel is another initiative that has been implented in the US, Cananda and Europe. This is reducing billions of particulates from the atmosphere.
In fact the latest emission requirements in the US and Europe are putting quite a burden on the auto industry.
http://www.oakridger.com/localnews/x177 ... n-December
This steam plant is on my old family farm.
-“The Bible treated allegorically becomes putty in the hands of the exegete.” John Walvoord
"I'm not saying scientists don't overstate their results. They do. And it's understandable, too...If you spend years working toward a certain goal and make no progress, of course you are going to spin your results in a positive light." Ivellious
"I'm not saying scientists don't overstate their results. They do. And it's understandable, too...If you spend years working toward a certain goal and make no progress, of course you are going to spin your results in a positive light." Ivellious
-
- Acquainted Member
- Posts: 19
- Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:34 am
- Christian: Yes
- Sex: Male
- Creation Position: Undecided
Re: question about climate change and the Bible
I think it's important to separate driving temperature change from triggering temperature change. The CO2 lag seen at the start of interglacial periods shows - pretty definitively - that CO2 did not trigger the warming; some event took place which caused temperatures to rise, which in turn led to CO2 out-gassing from oceans & glaciers.DannyM wrote:I think there is every reason to think that CO2 emissions will not lead to temperature rises of any magnitude. Abundant evidence of CO2 lagging temperatures, and not driving temperatures, would be reason enough. Wouldn't it?
That CO2 can contribute to some extent to global temperature changes is pretty obvious just in terms of the physics of how it interacts with infra-red radiation. In sufficient quantities CO2 theoretically ought to be able to warm the planet all by itself. What that sufficient quantity would be, or how significant a solely CO2-driven warming event could be are, of course, separate questions.
-
- Acquainted Member
- Posts: 19
- Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2010 7:34 am
- Christian: Yes
- Sex: Male
- Creation Position: Undecided
Re: question about climate change and the Bible
This is a very important point. If current levels of CO2 production are enough to drive more than negligible warming, then those billions have been well spent. If, however, anthropogenic greenhouse gases could only ever cause a small disruption in climate....jlay wrote:Great lenghts have already been taken to reduce the release of CO2 and actual harmful gasses into the atmosphere by man. Very expensive methods have been implemented in a number of areas including automotive emissions, and coal fired plants. Both to reduce CO2, SO2 and NOx emisions. In fact just in my area in the Tennessee Valley, billions have been spent on scrubbers for coal fired plants. Ultra Low sulfur diesel is another initiative that has been implented in the US, Cananda and Europe. This is reducing billions of particulates from the atmosphere.