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Posted: Thu Dec 07, 2006 10:55 am
by sandy_mcd
Turgonian wrote:This is completely irrelevant, since there is a 100% chance that someone will win the lottery. So unless you want to posit an unsubstantiated 'multiverse' (which would create a lottery scenario), you have to accept that it's a marvel this single universe even exists...
Not true. In most lottery systems, people buy tickets and choose numbers. Numbers are then drawn by the lottery holder, but since all numbers are usually not chosen, there frequently is no winner.
But with lotteries, odds can be simply calculated as it is assumed that random chance governs the outcome. What kind of statistical analysis can be justified to show that it is a "a marvel this single universe even exists"?
In general, if we do not know how something (abiogenesis or universe) may have happened, is it better to believe that it did or believe that it didn't? Does that question even make sense; is it possible to argue that one is better than the other? [What are the consequences of accepting either side?]
Posted: Thu Dec 07, 2006 3:02 pm
by Turgonian
Sorry. I don't participate in lotteries. However, the chance is in any case a lot higher than the chance of one specific person winning the lottery.
If random chance governs (as naturalists assert), the chance calculation is valid.
sandy_mcd wrote:In general, if we do not know how something (abiogenesis or universe) may have happened, is it better to believe that it did or believe that it didn't?
Believe that it didn't, if there's a lot more plausible explanation.
Posted: Thu Dec 07, 2006 7:34 pm
by Gman
Angel wrote:Have you ever won a national lottery?
Does that mean that it cannot be won?
This reminds me of the dumb & dumber movie where Jim Carrey asks a pretty lady about the chances he has to go on a date with her. She replies, "one in a million." Carrey counters, "so what you are telling me is that I have a chance..."
In the end, he doesn't get to go out with the lady...
Posted: Thu Dec 07, 2006 9:45 pm
by FFC
Gman wrote:Angel wrote:Have you ever won a national lottery?
Does that mean that it cannot be won?
This reminds me of the dumb & dumber movie where Jim Carrey asks a pretty lady about the chances he has to go on a date with her. She replies, "one in a million." Carrey counters, "so what you are telling me is that I have a chance..."
In the end, he doesn't get to go out with the lady...
I'm thinking it was the hair cut.
Posted: Mon Dec 18, 2006 4:02 am
by angel
Let me postpone answering to some points Turgonian raised.
Let me first go through thread:
http://discussions.godandscience.org/vi ... php?t=2837
The aim is to clarifying once for all the fact that one would need to know a lot of details about the scenario for abiogenesis in order to be able to compute the probability for it to occur naturistically.
I'll be back to this thread as the other one reaches a point.
