Political Predictions 2016

[RickD]

Philp wrote:
But for all of those who react as if Hil gets in, that the sky will fall - well, WHO exactly is still on His throne?

Slick willie? Sittin on his throne as the King of the ladies, in the Oval Office?

[Jac3510]

Jac,

You can't change your prediction. You were so sure that Trump would win.

Pick a prediction, and live with the consequences.

You misunderstand. My previous assurance that Trump would win was not based on a hope or even an expectation. It was based on a particular understanding of the way elections in general work. That same understanding has required the change. Think of it as a math equation. If 2x=y, then if X is 2, Y will always be 4. If x is 3, why will always be 6. Given the dynamics, Trump was going to win. There was almost no way he wasn't. I have always said, again, the only question that matters was if people could imagine Trump as president, which reduced further really means does Trump pass the "minimally presidential" threshold.

That's actually a pretty low threshold. None of the things Trump said or did before changed that. But this does change it. Americans, in general, don't that someone who commits sexual assault is minimally presidential. Trump's problem is that for all Hillary Clinton's problems, she does pass the minimally presidential threshold. All the talk about her being corrupt and selling access and other such things is deplorable, but not below the minimal line. All they ever did was give people motivation to vote for Trump, and all Trump had to do was give them a rationalization to vote for him. That let's a lot of people vote against Clinton, because Trump is minimally acceptable.

The problem is that Trump is no longer popularly perceivd as minimally acceptable. Therefore, the prediction has to change. No way around it. The only way for Trump to win is to somehow make himself minimally acceptable again (I don't see how that happens) while simultaneously making Clinton unacceptable. The only hope of the latter is, as far as I can tell, something health related. The corruption charges won't do it, especially when the person making the charge is seen as a rapist.

Hey, gotta be honest!

[Philip]

Has Trump threatened to sue these women and the NYTs, per these most recent allegations? Because unless it is false, or unless Trump knows there is no proof, one would think he would at least threaten to sue them all up the river.

Added: http://www.poynter.org/2016/donald-trum ... ry/434512/

[abelcainsbrother]

Has Trump threatened to sue these women and the NYTs, per these most recent allegations? Because unless it is false, or unless Trump knows there is no proof, one would think he would at least threaten to sue them all up the river.

Added: http://www.poynter.org/2016/donald-trum ... ry/434512/

Trump is known to sue when he is wronged.I think he is giving them the chance to retract these stories,and if they don't? He will sue them for slander.

[RickD]

Has Trump threatened to sue these women and the NYTs, per these most recent allegations? Because unless it is false, or unless Trump knows there is no proof, one would think he would at least threaten to sue them all up the river.

Added: http://www.poynter.org/2016/donald-trum ... ry/434512/

Trump is known to sue when he is wronged.I think he is giving them the chance to retract these stories,and if they don't? He will sue them for slander.

I'm asking this because I honestly don't know...

Does Trump have a history of suing, and fighting until the end? Or does he have a history of just paying people off.

[abelcainsbrother]

Has Trump threatened to sue these women and the NYTs, per these most recent allegations? Because unless it is false, or unless Trump knows there is no proof, one would think he would at least threaten to sue them all up the river.

Added: http://www.poynter.org/2016/donald-trum ... ry/434512/

Trump is known to sue when he is wronged.I think he is giving them the chance to retract these stories,and if they don't? He will sue them for slander.

I'm asking this because I honestly don't know...

Does Trump have a history of suing, and fighting until the end? Or does he have a history of just paying people off.

I'm just telling what I think about it. I understand that Trump does sue when he is wronged,it is possible some get settled out of court,or he has settled cases out of cour.But what I find interesting is how people can believe the media,when they should know how many fabricated stories the liberal media has put out about Republicans before. I do not believe them.

[Philip]

Well, the sad thing is, while Trump clearly was, at least in the considerable past, a boorish lout, at the very least in his attitude toward women, we don't know if he has changed or not. And in very recent times, BC's secret service have outed his continuing sexual shenanigans - he's an unreformed horndog! But the level of what we've read about Trump comes nowhere near the level of Bill abuse/Hillary's enabling, and the ruin of so many women's lives. So, the sensibilities of those leaning left: "OK, now that I know that Trump has long been disrespectful of women, I'd rather vote for HillBilly, who is PROVEN to have LONG been FAR worse!" That's people's reasoning, pathetic though it is. But the other thing is, with the polls neck and neck, you know the Clintons are desperate as are the Democrats, and a lot of money is exchanging hands for even a hint of dirt. So where does that leave us? One party with a questionable sexual past (Trump), with a serial adulterer and philanderer and his enabler - an enabler, btw, which has views and a history that is VERY scary, negative, and which shows us how dangerous her/their decisions can be. So, call Trump out where he needs to be - he's no saint! But don't play moral comparison politics, because the KNOWN immorality of BC and his enabler FAR exceeds what we have learned of Trump. But, God help us, that this is how low our choices have sunk. Both horses stink, but the one with a widely known political track record and history, tremendously more so!

[abelcainsbrother]

Has Trump threatened to sue these women and the NYTs, per these most recent allegations? Because unless it is false, or unless Trump knows there is no proof, one would think he would at least threaten to sue them all up the river.

Added: http://www.poynter.org/2016/donald-trum ... ry/434512/

Trump is known to sue when he is wronged.I think he is giving them the chance to retract these stories,and if they don't? He will sue them for slander.

I'm asking this because I honestly don't know...

Does Trump have a history of suing, and fighting until the end? Or does he have a history of just paying people off.

Here is an interesting article I found.
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/201 ... imes_.html

[Jac3510]

I'm not excited about it, Phil. And I hope I'm wrong. But the rational analysis isn't important. This isn't about rational analysis. It's about how people will vote. As a whole, people are much better at rationalizing a vote than they are at voting rationally. Offer all the rational arguments you want. You aren't going to overcome rationalizations by them precisely because such voters aren't voting based on rationality in the first place.

[Kurieuo]

Has Trump threatened to sue these women and the NYTs, per these most recent allegations? Because unless it is false, or unless Trump knows there is no proof, one would think he would at least threaten to sue them all up the river.

Added: http://www.poynter.org/2016/donald-trum ... ry/434512/

Trump is known to sue when he is wronged.I think he is giving them the chance to retract these stories,and if they don't? He will sue them for slander.

It doesn't matter to public opinion, and Clinton has the media in her pocket so... Democrats chose Trump for their running candidate (yes, I said Democrat as they wants either him, Cruz or Carson, but settled on Trump it seems), because they knew he could be smeared enough with allegations against women to move Hillary away from any of her own scandals (her laughing over the 12yo rape case she defended, and why she's still with Bill with his rape settlements and the like).

My two cents...

What Trump needs, is to now lower Hillary to absolutely zero presidential potentiality in the eyes of people. I'm surprised, given everything, that Hillary really hasn't been dropped and even arrested. I did consider Hillary above the Law 3 months ago as kind of rhetoric, but now, I never knew how much power the POTUS, the Government and associates have in your country. In Australia, even one bad scandal of a leader is enough to get them booted from their party. So, seriously, I'm left quite jaw-dropped by American politics -- soap operas having nothing on this US election.

There is a yet to be released video that will repulse absolutely all which even the media wouldn't be able to cover up. Deeply sad, Trump can also be smudged though, but not nearly anything as incriminating. There is also a second possible truth I'm aware to which would lead to Hillary being dropped. It could be that if Democrats are elected, then it will be whoever the Democrats replace her with. She just needs to be propped up enough for now, so that closer to the election even if she falls on a sword the Democrats still receive the popular vote. But then, there could be an absolute backlash against such as people end up confused and even enraged.

[Philip]

Jac: This isn't about rational analysis. It's about how people will vote. As a whole, people are much better at rationalizing a vote than they are at voting rationally. Offer all the rational arguments you want. You aren't going to overcome rationalizations by them precisely because such voters aren't voting based on rationality in the first place.

But, hey, but a fellow can reasonably point out the obvious irrational rationalizations, can't they?

Interesting, polls show, amongst men, Hil hasn't a chance. What does that say about his stupid statements concerning women, getting into pissing matches with Z listers, etc? The U.S. Navy never had a torpedo to compare to Trump's mouth!

Sad, if Trump is elected, BO will pardon her - or give out some kind of impenetrable immunity - that is, if such is possible?

[edwardmurphy]

I'm just telling what I think about it. I understand that Trump does sue when he is wronged,it is possible some get settled out of court,or he has settled cases out of cour.But what I find interesting is how people can believe the media,when they should know how many fabricated stories the liberal media has put out about Republicans before. I do not believe them.

Trump: I can sexually assault women and get away with it because I'm rich and powerful.
5 women so far: He sexually assaulted me and I was afraid to say anything because he was rich and powerful.

Seems plausible...

Trump: As a beauty pageant owner I get to walk in on the contestants while they're naked, hur, hur, hur...
Beauty pageant contestants: Trump walked in on us while we were naked.
Teen beauty pageant contestants: Us, too.

Seems plausible...

[edwardmurphy]

Into a few years of her reign - the gospel will be first hindered, soon afterward outlawed as hate speech...

Just a matter of time

HAHAHAHAHA!

Your days are numbered, Christian! Soon your religion will be banned and the Saul Alinsky Brigade will come for your Bibles and burn them! Then we'll all make s'mores with organic, non-GMO marshmallows, fair trade chocolate, and gluten free graham crackers and wash them down with soy lattes! And the next day, while we're all hopped up on sugar and caffeine, we'll use eminent domain to take all of your churches and turn them into gender reassignment clinics! Snip, baby, snip!

HAHAHAHAHA!

Your end is nigh!

On a more serious note, you're paranoid and your religion is perfectly safe.

[abelcainsbrother]

I'm just telling what I think about it. I understand that Trump does sue when he is wronged,it is possible some get settled out of court,or he has settled cases out of cour.But what I find interesting is how people can believe the media,when they should know how many fabricated stories the liberal media has put out about Republicans before. I do not believe them.

Trump: I can sexually assault women and get away with it because I'm rich and powerful.
5 women so far: He sexually assaulted me and I was afraid to say anything because he was rich and powerful.

Seems plausible...

Trump: As a beauty pageant owner I get to walk in on the contestants while they're naked, hur, hur, hur...
Beauty pageant contestants: Trump walked in on us while we were naked.
Teen beauty pageant contestants: Us, too.

Seems plausible...

I do not believe the liberal for Hillary biased propaganda news media. They have lied so many times they have no credibility.

Here listen to this if you can.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TS7lk1rURXI

[Kurieuo]

This might push things back towards Trump, you think?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tOOc-toJkdE