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Escalation in the Middle East
Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 3:29 pm
by August
Israel is busy bombing the living daylights out of Lebanon, and has not ruled out sending in ground forces. As if that is not bad enough, the most worrying news is an unconfirmed report that the rocket that hit Haifa, the Israel port city, normally out of range for Hezbollah's primitive rockets, was fired by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard stationed in Lebanon. If so, that is a serious act of war from Iran on Israel, and if confirmed, will open up the possibility of legitimate retaliation against Iran, and full-scale regional war.
I am usnure as to where the rest of the Arab world will stand on this. None of them supported Saddam and Iraq because he was largely secular, but how will they react if a conservative Muslim stronghold gets involved?
Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 3:38 pm
by Jac3510
This does have an outside chance of becoming very, very serious. If Iran and Israel end up declaring all out war, it won't be long before the US is involved, which will mean England wouldn't be far behind. Syria and other Muslim countries would get involved . . .
Although, if it does get that bad, I don't think it would last very long. What would last a long time would be the instability that would follow a toppled middle east.
Do you think if Iran and Israel actually declare war that the US would get involved? Israel hardly needs our help there. But, since we are already stationed right between the two . . .
It's an interesting series of events to watch. This is definitely one for the history books, eh?
Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 3:47 pm
by August
Another issue is that if Iranians, rather than Hezbollah terrorists fired that missile into Haifa, it was an act of war by Iran, and will then have to be taken up in the UN security council. I guess we already know that some of the members will pussyfoot around the issue, like Russia and France, and this will delay any UN-sanctioned response. Iran has previously drawn a line in the sand (excuse the pun), and said they will attack Israel if they attacked Syria. However, they have been major supporters of Hezbollah, and it's worthy to note that Hezbollah has denied responsibility for the Haifa attack, while accepting responsibility for the between 70 and 100 attacks in the last 48 hours.
All of that adds up to a possible long range missile attack by Israel on Iran, who, if they have nuclear assets, may use those in response, which will be terrible. In the meantime, we have around 100,000 US troops sitting right in the middle of this mess, and I have no doubt that the US will get involved if Israel attacks Iran.
Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 3:56 pm
by August
Oh, and go fill up your gas tanks, oil is already over $78-00 per barrel....
Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 5:09 pm
by Byblos
August wrote:Another issue is that if Iranians, rather than Hezbollah terrorists fired that missile into Haifa, it was an act of war by Iran, and will then have to be taken up in the UN security council. I guess we already know that some of the members will pussyfoot around the issue, like Russia and France, and this will delay any UN-sanctioned response. Iran has previously drawn a line in the sand (excuse the pun), and said they will attack Israel if they attacked Syria. However, they have been major supporters of Hezbollah, and it's worthy to note that Hezbollah has denied responsibility for the Haifa attack, while accepting responsibility for the between 70 and 100 attacks in the last 48 hours.
All of that adds up to a possible long range missile attack by Israel on Iran, who, if they have nuclear assets, may use those in response, which will be terrible. In the meantime, we have around 100,000 US troops sitting right in the middle of this mess, and I have no doubt that the US will get involved if Israel attacks Iran.
There's no question that Hezbollah is supported by both Syria and Iran and well-financed and trained by Iran (to the tune of 30 to 40 million dollars a month, they so much as admitted that). They do also enjoy an almost exclusive support of the Shiite community in Lebanon but not the Christian or other Moslems (largely Sunnis). Quite recently there has been a Lebanese national dialogue among other things to disarm Hezbollah through national dialogue. We feel it is important to accomplish that internally (not sure how though) as we just came of a 30 year occupation of a foreign country (Syria) and we don't want to rely on yet another foreign force to accomplish that. It's a very thorny issue and it's going to take a lot of time to resolve. In the mean time, Hezbollah rains unopposed in the South and the recent events are the result.
As to the question of who fired the missile into Haifa, I don't think it's going to make much difference, if it came from Lebanese territory then Hezbollah is responsible and by extension, both Syria and Iran.
While on the surface Hezbollah's motive in kidnapping the 2 Israeli soldiers is to exchange them for other prisoners, I would venture to say they have a bunch of other motives both internal (to secure their presence as the sole power as well as powerbroker in Lebanon) and external (at the behest of Syria and Iran whose own motives are not too clear as of yet).
It is indeed a most dangerous turn of events. While I don't believe it will escalate to the level of all-out war between Israel, Syria and Iran, it most certainly does have serious implications to the fragile peace within Lebanon itself.
Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 5:59 pm
by August
It seems that the elected government in Lebanon is just about powerless to stop these attacks from being launched, and that is to the detriment of it's people. On the other hand, they cannot turn their back on the financial aid they get from Syria and Iran either.
I think it does make a difference whether Iran was directly responsible for launching the attacks, if it can be proven. Hezbollah is a known terror organization, but as such does not represent a government and therefore accountability becomes a much bigger problem.
Posted: Fri Jul 14, 2006 6:16 am
by Byblos
August wrote:It seems that the elected government in Lebanon is just about powerless to stop these attacks from being launched, and that is to the detriment of it's people.
All too painfully true.
August wrote:On the other hand, they cannot turn their back on the financial aid they get from Syria and Iran either.
Not sure if you're referring to Hezbollah or the government of Lebanon. The government does not receive any financial support from Syria or Iran. On the contrary, during Syria's occupation they plunged the country in a $40 billion deficit (of course along with some very corrupt local politicians).
August wrote:I think it does make a difference whether Iran was directly responsible for launching the attacks, if it can be proven. Hezbollah is a known terror organization, but as such does not represent a government and therefore accountability becomes a much bigger problem.
I would agree if there were any possibility of ever finding out. It's not like the government can launch an investigation. The army is barred from entering Hezbollah strongholds, particularly in the South. There's virtually zero chance of anyone finding out who fired those missiles.
Re: Escalation in the Middle East
Posted: Fri Jul 14, 2006 6:32 am
by Canuckster1127
August wrote:Israel is busy bombing the living daylights out of Lebanon, and has not ruled out sending in ground forces. As if that is not bad enough, the most worrying news is an unconfirmed report that the rocket that hit Haifa, the Israel port city, normally out of range for Hezbollah's primitive rockets, was fired by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard stationed in Lebanon. If so, that is a serious act of war from Iran on Israel, and if confirmed, will open up the possibility of legitimate retaliation against Iran, and full-scale regional war.
I am usnure as to where the rest of the Arab world will stand on this. None of them supported Saddam and Iraq because he was largely secular, but how will they react if a conservative Muslim stronghold gets involved?
For what it is worth, News Analysis this morning I listened to on NPR (yes ..... I know .....) indicated that there is actually some Arab condemnation of Hezbellah (sp?) and understanding of Israel's position.
My synthesis on the big picture is that Iran is behing much that is happening in many different locations.
In the past, France and India have been the countries on the UN security council who could be counted on more than others to block US initiatives against Iran.
Since last years reversal of the US providing India with nuclear power technology combined with greater economic ties between the US and India, India has not blocked the US in the security council since then. France has been undergoing some very intense internal changes in large part due to the very significant and growing Muslim population with the country. Racial and religious tension there have been growing and the riots in Paris last year are only on instance of the type of tensions that are growing there. Part of the outcome of this has been greater sympathy at the higher political levels within France for US positions and as a result France has not been as obstructionist in the UN Council as well.
This recent bombing in India is being seen as backed and supported by Iran in retaliation for these developments and an attempt to disrupt and poison their US strengthening relations.
More tension is being seen in France as well and is being interpreted by some in Washington as Iranian disruption.
So, coupled with Lebanon and escalation there, Israel is being seen as more politically supported and some division coming within normally united Arab countries who present a common front against Israel.
While it is not a foregone conclusion that anything more will develop, the risk is high and Oil Prices are reflecting this.
Iran was not included within the "Axis of Evil" for nothing and there is not any indication that the basis of that moniker has changed. Quite the opposite.
US and British forces could likely take the Iranian government and infrastructure down in a matter of weeks if not days. There's no solution for occupation and rebuilding however and if you think Iraq is a morass, this would make Iraq pale in comparison.
Prayer would be a good thing now.
Posted: Fri Jul 14, 2006 6:52 am
by August
Iran is meddling in lots of places, and may be showing the world that it can disrupt things if they wanted to...oil price up, stock markets down etc, to try and somehow strenghten their position at the bargaining table about nuclear power.
I don't think it will work, as soon as Israel has damaged the capacity of Hezbollah to attack them sufficiently, things will normalize. I feel for the citizens of Lebanon though, just as they thought they had some measure of peace, they get this again.
The Arab league has been surprisingly critical of Hezbollah in this whole episode. Iran has been silent on the issue though, except to vehemently deny the reports that the Israeli prisoners will be transferred there.
Byblos, to answer your question, Israeli intelligence knows where the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is stationed in Lebanon, and apparently have satellite images showing the Haifa missile launched from that area. Alo, why would Hezbollah deny that particular attack while admitting to hundred others? It is small but critical piece in the whole situation, because Israel can potentially decide to use it as an excuse to go after the Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran has a long track record of supplying arms to Hezbollah, financially supporting them and training them, and maybe now even directly doing some fighting for them. The Israeli logic may lead them to believe that if Iran does build nukes, they will be all too willing to suply that someone like Hezbollah to acheice Irans goal of "wiping Israel form the face of the earth".
Posted: Fri Jul 14, 2006 7:13 am
by Byblos
August wrote:Iran is meddling in lots of places, and may be showing the world that it can disrupt things if they wanted to...oil price up, stock markets down etc, to try and somehow strenghten their position at the bargaining table about nuclear power.
I don't think it will work, as soon as Israel has damaged the capacity of Hezbollah to attack them sufficiently, things will normalize. I feel for the citizens of Lebanon though, just as they thought they had some measure of peace, they get this again.
Such is the sad history of my country. We unite separately under the banner of our respective religions but we can't seem to unite together under our national banner. We had high hopes after the cedar revolution and the Syrian pullout. But the existence of an armed group that's more powerful than the government and that's furthering the interests of foreign states makes reality otherwise.
August wrote:The Arab league has been surprisingly critical of Hezbollah in this whole episode. Iran has been silent on the issue though, except to vehemently deny the reports that the Israeli prisoners will be transferred there.
Yes, that is surprising. The strongest condemnation is coming from Saudi Arabia of all places. But then again, Saudi Arabia is a Sunni nation and the Lebanese Sunnis, for the most, oppose Hezbollah as an armed militia.
August wrote:Byblos, to answer your question, Israeli intelligence knows where the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is stationed in Lebanon, and apparently have satellite images showing the Haifa missile launched from that area. Alo, why would Hezbollah deny that particular attack while admitting to hundred others? It is small but critical piece in the whole situation, because Israel can potentially decide to use it as an excuse to go after the Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran has a long track record of supplying arms to Hezbollah, financially supporting them and training them, and maybe now even directly doing some fighting for them. The Israeli logic may lead them to believe that if Iran does build nukes, they will be all too willing to suply that someone like Hezbollah to acheice Irans goal of "wiping Israel form the face of the earth".
I see what you're saying. Makes sense if Iran wants to escalate things by launching missiles at Haifa without even Hezbollah knowing about it. It's either they (Hezbollah) were blindsided by it or they were specifically told to deny it so as to make it known (without hard proof) that Iran is in control. That could very well be the case.
Posted: Fri Jul 14, 2006 11:23 am
by AttentionKMartShoppers
http://jihadwatch.org/dhimmiwatch/
This is the sort of thing that makes me ashamed to be a Catholic. However, I stand with the Christians of the Lebanese Foundation for Peace who wrote this Open Letter to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, now posted at LGF:
Dear Mr. Prime Minister,
It was about time,
We Lebanese congratulate you on your recent actions against the Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in Lebanon. We urge you to hit them hard and destroy their terror infrastructure. It is not Israel who is fed up with this situation, but the majority of the silent Lebanese in Lebanon who are fed up with Hezbollah and are powerless to do anything out of fear of terror retaliation.
Since Israel's forced withdrawal in 2000, pulling out due to pressure from the Clinton Administration, Hezbollah has not for one day ceased its terror incentives, acts of war and provocations at the border. Hezbollah, with the help of Syria and Iran, turned Southern Lebanon into a terror base supported by 12,000 Iranian missiles threatening every initiative for Peace in general and the security of Israel in particular.
Unfortunately, the West should have understood from the beginning that diplomacy does not work with terrorism, neither the Saudi backed initiatives in Lebanon, it enforces terrorism and acts like a booster for Hezbollah justifications on the ground.
The Lebanese are trapped within their own nation.
We urge you not to hit Lebanese infrastructure, Lebanon is a friendly country, rather hit and destroy Hezbollah's infrastructure in the country.
The IAF raids on suspected Hezbollah strongholds will have a limited effect on this terror organization; an infantry offensive is needed to clean up Southern Lebanon from the threatening missiles and launching bases , destroy Hezbollah infrastructure and consolidate security.
On behalf of thousands of Lebanese, we ask you to open the doors of Tel Aviv Ben Gurion airport to thousands of volunteers in the Diaspora willing to bear arms and liberate their homeland from fundamentalism. We ask you for support, facilitations and logistics in order to win this struggle and achieve together the same objectives: Peace and Security for Lebanon and Israel and our future generations to come.
As of the fighting continue in the north of Israel in order to create security, at the Lebanon Israel border, we ask the world's nations to endorse your political action and wish you full success in your deterrence against terrorism's autonomy in Southern Lebanon and Gaza.
Mr. Prime Minister,
Help Lebanon in order to help yourself.
Just thought this was interested. Vatican is saying don't attack Lebanon while Lebanese are asking to be invaded. Kinda cute-guess this won't hit the mainstream media-because Israel is always wrong. Could be wrong though.
Posted: Fri Jul 14, 2006 11:38 am
by Byblos
About an hour ago, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah declared open war on Israel after they destroyed his home and HQ in Southern Beirut and he sank (or hit) an Israely warship in the Mediterranian (I guess they have more sophisticated weaponry than anyone thought).
The statement is in red (at 20:30) but it's in Arabic (and the news site is very busy).
http://www.tayyar.org/tayyar/index.php
We truly need prayers more than ever before. God help us.
Posted: Fri Jul 14, 2006 8:52 pm
by Gman
Byblos, do you still have folks back there? Sorry to see all this happening over there.
G -
Posted: Sat Jul 15, 2006 5:38 am
by Byblos
Gman wrote:Byblos, do you still have folks back there? Sorry to see all this happening over there.
G -
Thank you for asking Gman. Yes I do. My mom, 2 sisters and my brother, and, of course, the extended family (aunts, uncles, cousins). Thankfully, they are all far from the south and southern Beirut. But like the news is saying this morning, it's as if the whole country is a state of war.
Posted: Sat Jul 15, 2006 3:38 pm
by August
Byblos, our prayers are with you and your family. I know how you feel, I have family in a dangerous part of the world too.
God bless.