Anything's possible Gman, but I am very hopeful another civil war can be avoided. What you're seeing now is nothing more than saber rattling and position jockeying. Hezbollah knows full well that they painted themselves in a corner. Their claim of existence (to protect the country from the
zionist enemy fell short of its promise since they couldn't stop an invasion from occurring. They're taking the next best thing by claiming victory for 'blocking' the invasion (never mind that a thousand innocent people died and the country's infrastructure is in ruins).
Given that they could not stop an invasion, and the fact that Hezbollah's promise to its countrymen was always that their weapons will never be directed inward, Hezbollah will have no choice but to give up their arms. The big question is how.
In Lebanon politics, there's NEVER, EVER, a winner and a loser. That's true in times of war as well times of peace. Politics by consensus, not majority. It's the only formula that will protect Lebanon's diversity and democracy. Hezbollh will not be disarmed by force, nor will they lay them down willingly; that would mean defeat. Given enough time, Hezbollah's weapons will simply disappear, never to be seen or used again. Every once in a while you will hear them threaten to use them but idle threats they will be. The Lebanese army, along with a strengthened UNIFIL, is in control of the South. Hezbollah no longer has a role to play in the South but they're trying ride the 'victory' wagon into a bigger role in Lebanon politics.
Of course, if external influences are exerted with enough force, Hezbollah is capable of reversing course and causing civil war. In that dreaded scenario, the war will no longer be contained locally.
Samir Geagea, by the way, (the man quoted in the article) is my former commander.
Last sentence in the article wrote:He was leader of the Lebanese Forces — the country's most powerful Christian militia during the Lebanese civil war. Israel backed the militia during that conflict and the Israeli invasion in 1982 to expel Palestinian guerrillas.
He is known as The Doctor. He had gone to medical school but an injury to his hand as well as the war prevented him from finishing, however.
God bless,
Byblos.