Critique this cumulative argument
Posted: Mon May 21, 2012 7:11 am
This is a long post, I hope somebody has some time and bears with me. If its tl:dr, just look at the numbered points and respond.
I understand that there have been "cumulative arguments" made before, but I never paid much attention to them. I like to think things through for myself and formulate my own arguments, although most of the time they aren't necessarily rigorous or airtight as far as wording or construction. Just something to do for fun. So I've been working on a weak cumulative case in my mind, but I'm really not sure how to best construct is so it will make sense. For now I'll just number the points. Let me know if it has any value, if there are arguments just like it with better wording, where its wrong, any of that.
One thing I didn't do or want to do is construct this argument by appealing to mathematics and specific numbers. From what I've seen, trying to force a formula or mathematical probability theories on to metaphysics and philosophy is way too subjective and arbitrary. So what I appeal to is simple probability. An important point, I'm going to grant some things that I absolutely don't believe and say that certain theistic arguments are weak when I actually feel just the opposite. And again, my appeal here is very simplistic.
Here's the argument-
1- It is extremely unlikely that there is a God, but it is possible.
Below are reliant on 1-
2- It is unlikely that the universe necessarily exists or came into existence out of nothing, but it is much more unlikely that God created it.
3- It is unlikely that the universe was fine-tuned to allow for life without an agent's direction, but it is much more unlikely that God designed the universe.
4- It is unlikely that human life should have come about on this planet, but it is much more unlikely that God created man.
5- It is unlikely that we should have reasoning ability, but it is much more unlikely that God gave us reasoning ability.
6- It is unlikely that there are laws which
7- Without appeal to God, we cannot explain consciousness, free will, or objective moral duties.
The below then, depend on 7-
8- It is unlikely that consciousness is an illusion, but it is much more unlikely that we are conscious.
9- It is unlikely that free will is illusory, but it is much more unlikely that we have free will.
10- It is unlikely that objective moral duties are illusory, but it is more unlikely that objective morality exists
11- If you combine any two points (out of 2-6 and 8-10), the likelihood of coincidence (the first phrase in each point) decreases and the likelihood of a Creator being the correct explanation (the second phrase in each point) increases
12- Given 11, if you take 2-6 and 8-10 all into account, it becomes much, much more probable that God exists than that he does not exist.
13- 1 is false, God almost certainly exists.
Summary- If you take any one argument for God on its own or one fact that cannot be explained without God, it is reasonable to believe God does not exist. Whenever you combine one argument with another, however, it becomes much more likely that there is validity to belief in God. When you combine ALL of the arguments, the existence of God becomes so strong that it looks to be undeniable while maintaining a reasonable stance.
If you deny 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10, then you should already believe in God and accept 13. Maybe something like Bayes' Theorem would do better then just simple probability, but like I already mentioned I feel that its much too arbitrary. So I'd like to leave that out of it and appeal to intuition.
Finally, I should mention that I left out miracles, the resurrection, personal experience, the fact that people tend to believe in God, and other arguments. Any of those could be added to make the argument stronger but I figured it was long enough.
I understand that there have been "cumulative arguments" made before, but I never paid much attention to them. I like to think things through for myself and formulate my own arguments, although most of the time they aren't necessarily rigorous or airtight as far as wording or construction. Just something to do for fun. So I've been working on a weak cumulative case in my mind, but I'm really not sure how to best construct is so it will make sense. For now I'll just number the points. Let me know if it has any value, if there are arguments just like it with better wording, where its wrong, any of that.
One thing I didn't do or want to do is construct this argument by appealing to mathematics and specific numbers. From what I've seen, trying to force a formula or mathematical probability theories on to metaphysics and philosophy is way too subjective and arbitrary. So what I appeal to is simple probability. An important point, I'm going to grant some things that I absolutely don't believe and say that certain theistic arguments are weak when I actually feel just the opposite. And again, my appeal here is very simplistic.
Here's the argument-
1- It is extremely unlikely that there is a God, but it is possible.
Below are reliant on 1-
2- It is unlikely that the universe necessarily exists or came into existence out of nothing, but it is much more unlikely that God created it.
3- It is unlikely that the universe was fine-tuned to allow for life without an agent's direction, but it is much more unlikely that God designed the universe.
4- It is unlikely that human life should have come about on this planet, but it is much more unlikely that God created man.
5- It is unlikely that we should have reasoning ability, but it is much more unlikely that God gave us reasoning ability.
6- It is unlikely that there are laws which
7- Without appeal to God, we cannot explain consciousness, free will, or objective moral duties.
The below then, depend on 7-
8- It is unlikely that consciousness is an illusion, but it is much more unlikely that we are conscious.
9- It is unlikely that free will is illusory, but it is much more unlikely that we have free will.
10- It is unlikely that objective moral duties are illusory, but it is more unlikely that objective morality exists
11- If you combine any two points (out of 2-6 and 8-10), the likelihood of coincidence (the first phrase in each point) decreases and the likelihood of a Creator being the correct explanation (the second phrase in each point) increases
12- Given 11, if you take 2-6 and 8-10 all into account, it becomes much, much more probable that God exists than that he does not exist.
13- 1 is false, God almost certainly exists.
Summary- If you take any one argument for God on its own or one fact that cannot be explained without God, it is reasonable to believe God does not exist. Whenever you combine one argument with another, however, it becomes much more likely that there is validity to belief in God. When you combine ALL of the arguments, the existence of God becomes so strong that it looks to be undeniable while maintaining a reasonable stance.
If you deny 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10, then you should already believe in God and accept 13. Maybe something like Bayes' Theorem would do better then just simple probability, but like I already mentioned I feel that its much too arbitrary. So I'd like to leave that out of it and appeal to intuition.
Finally, I should mention that I left out miracles, the resurrection, personal experience, the fact that people tend to believe in God, and other arguments. Any of those could be added to make the argument stronger but I figured it was long enough.