Odds of our existence

[Phi]

I posted this in another topic, got no responses, so I figure I would create a topic for it!

So I have a question about odds of life forming, fine tuning, etc...

If the odds of complex life forming (like us) is 1:10^120th power (or something along those lines), one would think a grand designer would be involved to guide it or set it in motion.

However (this is where I ask questions based on answers others have given), then what are the odds of "Michael Jordan" saying the phrase, "wow, I like a cheese sandwich with garlic and pickles" when he is exactly 39 1/2 days until his 31st birthday (down to the second).

The odds would be extremely high and almost improbable but yet it still happened at that exact second (thus defying the odds). Could this be the case with our existence and universe?

The reason behind my question, is something like this happened to me about 19 years ago. I was questioning Gods existence while my parents were driving down the road and I said to myself, "God if you can hear me, give me a reason to put my seatbelt on"

And sure enough that exact second a car in the oncoming lane swerved over and almost hit us........I promptly put my seatbelt on.

But what are the odds the ONLY time in my life I think that statement and that car swerved over? To this day I still struggle with that. Was it a sign from the big guy? Or did I just beat the odds of statistics? I mean what if someone said Phi's Mom, "At exactly 12 years, 3 months, 2 week, Tuesday, 45 Minutes and 32 seconds old your future son will think this thought and a car will swerve and almost hit you guys" The odds would be statistically high yet it still happened....

Hopefully that makes sense, sorry if it doesn't.

BTW.......I think of that story every time I get in a car

[Beanybag]

The example of Michael Jordan is trying to apply a prediction after the fact. If you were to try and predict that Michael Jordan would say those words at that exact time, it would indeed defy probability. But when you try and examine the fact afterward, you're neglecting the circumstances. If you witness an event and then after the fact, ask, "wow, what were the odds of that!" then you have missed the point of probability. The chances are now 100% that that happened because it is what happened, it occupied the whole of the probabilistic space.

Now, given a generic event like, 'given X conditions, what is the probability of Y event occurring?' it can be said that if Y event occurs, it would have been a 1/Z chance of occurring. What you need to take into consideration is how many binary event chances occurred (i.e. there were two outcomes to the event, either Y happened or it didn't) and sometimes you need to identify the type of probability (is it dependent, independent, dependent in what way, etc.). For something like abiogenesis, if condition X was met across the whole of the oceans such that a great many chances for event Y were introduced every second for millions of years, it could counterbalance the low probability of an event occurring. In general, I would reject any probabilistic analysis of an event like abiogenesis - we don't even have a working idea of how it happened, how can we have a probabilistic analysis of that event?

[KBCid]

If the odds of complex life forming (like us) is 1:10^120th power (or something along those lines), one would think a grand designer would be involved to guide it or set it in motion.
However (this is where I ask questions based on answers others have given), then what are the odds of "Michael Jordan" saying the phrase, "wow, I like a cheese sandwich with garlic and pickles" when he is exactly 39 1/2 days until his 31st birthday (down to the second).

There are two forms of figuring odds. The first is when you have all the parameters known such as the odds of getting a specific hand in cards. We know how many cards there are and their values so odds are a very simple calculation.
The second type is where we have only some parameters and take guesses at the rest. Take for instance the odds of life forming on its own by chance. What is actually known about the necessary parameters that are required? Some have theorised an ocean full of building blocks to allow for it to occur. This was rationalised based on an understanding of chemistry. This is at least a rational point to start from buuut, the fossil record shows no such occurance having happened.
So if you go strickly on the theoretical position then you may be able to form some numbers, however, if the fossil record is true and there were no building blocks available then tell me what you think the odds would be?. (The answer is none)

In your question above you did not define all the parameters involved with Michael Jordan. For one you didn't state the parameter that someone offered him a ton of money at a specific time to say the phrase. So what would be the odds of Michael saying that phrase when you factor in a ton of money being offered before he is exactly 39 1/2 days until his 31st birthday. There are a multitude of causes that are related to effects. To have the best understanding you need to make sure you have factored in all causes to explain an effect and do your best not to make a guess.

[Phi]

As always, thanks everyone for your responses! I knew I missing a few key points there!

Phi